30% of Hong Kong international schools expect expat applications to fall over next 5 years, as some predict surge in local demand
- Among 68 schools surveyed, 20 anticipate annual 13 per cent decrease in admission applications from non-local students in the years up to 2028-29
- 10 institutions expect 26 per cent annual increase in applications from Hong Kong pupils over five-year period
Almost 30 per cent of Hong Kong’s international and private schools expect non-local student applications to drop by 13 per cent annually over the next five years, although some institutions anticipate a surge in local demand, a government-commissioned study has found.
Competition for international school places would remain keen if parents merely chose the few institutions considered “the best of the best”, consultancy firm Policy 21 said in its report, quoting some principals.
The study, commissioned by the Education Bureau for projections on the provision of school places until 2029, surveyed 47 international schools, seven private independent schools and 14 private institutions offering non-local curriculums.
Among the 68 schools, 20 institutions, or 29.4 per cent, anticipated an annual decrease of 13 per cent in admission applications from non-local students in the years up to 2028-29. Six schools expected a 41 per cent annual increase.
Ten institutions anticipated an annual 26 per cent increase in applications from Hong Kong pupils over the five-year period. No schools expected local applications to drop.
The report did not give reasons for the schools’ estimations.
However, the consultancy firm provided its own projection on the number of non-local students in international schools based on gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy of economic activity and a grade transition model, which extrapolates the future enrolment in each form.
