Meet the Hong Kong forecaster who predicted spread of coronavirus cases in US
- Jonathan Li’s forecasts for the number of new cases in the US and Europe have been borne out by events
- Computer engineer took up to 100 factors into account when drawing up his model, including demographics, infrastructure and population density
A computer engineer who designed a model to forecast the number of new Covid-19 cases has been hailed by Chinese internet users for the accuracy of his predictions.
Jonathan Li Zhibin said he had been following the epidemic closely from the start because of his memories of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in his hometown of Hong Kong and because of his close connections to Wuhan, which he visits regularly to see friends and family.
Forecasts published on Li’s blog at the end of March for the number of new coronavirus cases in the United States and European Union in April turned out to be more than 90 per cent accurate.
He estimated on March 27 that the number of cumulative cases for the US on April 3 would be 253,273. The reported number according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention for that day was 277,205, giving his forecast a 91 per cent degree of accuracy.
“In January, only Wuhan and Hong Kong had coronavirus data. Hong Kong had a bad experience with Sars, all Hongkongers are very sensitive to outbreaks like this, including me. So I wanted to find out why that was early on,” Li said.
