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Laurie Chen

Chinese President Xi Jinping called the pneumonia-like virus that has ravaged the city of Wuhan a “demon” that must be defeated, but some of the world’s leading infectious disease experts cannot agree on how long it will take to bring it under control.
One of China’s top experts said the Wuhan coronavirus infection rate could peak in early February.
“I estimate that it will reach its peak in around the next week or 10 days, after that there will be no more major increases,” said Zhong Nanshan, the respiratory disease scientist who played the pivotal role in China’s fight against the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) coronavirus epidemic in 2002-03.
He is also leading a team of experts to tackle the present outbreak and made the comments in an interview with state news agency Xinhua on Tuesday.

A total of 5,974 people are now confirmed to have contracted the current infection in mainland China, the health authorities said on Wednesday. That means the Wuhan-centered outbreak has now surpassed Sars, which infected 5,327 people in the mainland. Sars then went on to kill 813 people worldwide, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
The death toll from the Wuhan coronavirus has risen to 132 in China, the authorities said, with infections confirmed in 12 other countries. No deaths have so far been reported from the virus outside of China.
Beijing has imposed travel restrictions across the country, and as many as 14 city-wide lockdowns affecting tens of millions of people are in place to try to curb the spread of the virus.
Are Hong Kong’s coronavirus measures too little, too late?
While stating that it is very difficult to make predictions about the infection peak for the new virus, Zhong said China’s efforts in early detection and early isolation were the right measures. “After doing these two things, we have enough confidence to prevent another peak,” he said.
“Sars lasted for almost five or six months, but I don’t believe that the new coronavirus will be able to continue for that long,” said Zhong, now the director of the State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease in China.
Gabriel Leung, dean of Hong Kong University’s medical school, is in sharp disagreement on the potential infection rate for the Wuhan virus.


Leung is leading a team of experts using mathematical modelling to predict the spread based on available worldwide data. He said on Monday that his team’s research showed self-sustaining human-to-human transmission was already happening in all major mainland cities and warned that a pandemic might be close.
“We have to be prepared, that this particular epidemic may be about to become a global epidemic,” he said.
The outbreak was expected to peak in April or May in five major Chinese cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou – before the number of infections could begin to gradually decline in June or July, Leung said.
As many as 44,000 people could be infected in Wuhan alone, with only 25,000 likely to be showing symptoms at this time, said Leung, citing the team’s research.
China will contain ‘demon’ outbreak, Xi says as death toll mounts
He urged the Hong Kong government to take “substantial and draconian measures” to limit population mobility.
A growing number of countries and territories have denied entry to travellers from central Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. Hong Kong announced on Tuesday that it would suspend new visas for individual mainland tourists from Thursday, accounting for half of all cross-border visitors to the city.
However, the infection rate estimate by Zhong was echoed by Gao Fu, the director of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. He said he was “optimistic” that the outbreak’s “turning point” could arrive by February 8 if current disease control protocol is maintained.

“If we stick to the current measures, we should see a turning point in the near future. Everyone predicts that the situation can improve by the time of the Lantern Festival [on February 8],” said Gao in an interview with state broadcaster CCTV on Tuesday.
“I am personally optimistic, and I believe that [it will improve] earlier than this, but everyone must stick to the prevention and control measures.”
Gao added that he believed the current measures were working, as the number of suspected cases was decreasing.
At a meeting in Beijing with WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Tuesday, Xi pledged transparency on how China was dealing the virus. He said China was confident of containing the crisis and that “we cannot let this demon hide”, according to state media.
British Airways suspends all flights to China over coronavirus
China’s lockdown of major cities – Wuhan has a population of 11 million – is an attempt to try and trap the virus in those locations and prevent it spreading and infecting other people. While international experts agree this is the basic method of containing it, some will not be drawn on where the infection rate may go from here.
“Whether transmission continues at the same rate now critically depends on the effectiveness of the intense control effort now under way in Wuhan and across China,” according to a report by scientists at Imperial College London’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis published on Saturday.
If transmission rates fall over the next few weeks, especially in Wuhan, it would indicate that control measures are having an effect, according to the report.

“No-one can predict with any accuracy how long it might take for this epidemic to peak,” said John Edmunds, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who specialises in infectious disease modelling.
“However, I would hazard a guess that the probability that the epidemic will peak in seven-to-10 days is extremely low. April or May would seem much more probable.”
When W. Ian Lipkin, professor of epidemiology at Columbia University, was asked to comment on the conflicting views about when the Wuhan virus infections may peak, he answered in an email: “I don’t have a crystal ball.”
 

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Coronavirus pandemic

China’s ‘demon’ virus leaves health experts at odds on when infection rate will slow

Dean of University of Hong Kong's medical school Professor Gabriel Matthew Leung Cheuk-wai speaks to the media during a press conference on coronavirus. 27JAN20 SCMP/ Edmond So

Gao Fu, the head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), speaks to journalists after a press conference about a virus outbreak at the State Council Information Office in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 26, 2020. The new virus accelerated its spread in China, and the U.S. Consulate in the epicenter of the outbreak, the central city of Wuhan, announced Sunday it will evacuate its personnel and some private citizens aboard a charter flight. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

(200128) -- BEIJING, Jan. 28, 2020 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with visiting World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Jan. 28, 2020. (Xinhua/Ju Peng)

Renowned respiratory scientist and a government adviser on the Wuhan coronavirus, Zhong Nanshan believes the outbreak could peak in a week to 10 days. Photo: Xinhua

China coronavirus: Vietnam flags likely human transmission case of father from Wuhan infecting son

Officials from Vietnam’s Ministry of Health talk to the two men who tested positive for the coronavirus. Photo: EPA

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China is the Seattle-based coffee chain’s largest market outside the United States. Photo: APA-EFE

China coronavirus: Japanese evacuees describe confusion in Wuhan as infection spreads

Japanese passengers after being evacuated from Wuhan. Photo: Reuters

Passangers arrive at Sydney airport wearing masks after landing on January 25, 2020. - Australian authorities confirmed its first case of a new virus as thousands of people worldwide are treated for the deadly infection (Photo by PETER PARKS / AFP)

epa08149717 Deputy Australian Prime Minister Michael McCormack (L) and Prime Minister Scott Morrison (R) are updated by Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy (C) on the steps being taken to control the coronavirus at the National Incident Room of the Department of Health in Canberra, Australia, 22 January 2020. According to media reports, at least nine people have died, and 300 people are confirmed infected by a new respiratory virus which was first detected in Wuhan, China. The virus, called the coronavirus, can be passed between humans and has spread to the USA, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. EPA-EFE/MICK TSIKAS AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT

China coronavirus: 201 Americans airlifted from Wuhan arrive in California after passing health screening

Personnel in protective clothing approach the aircraft carrying evacuated US citizens from Wuhan after it arrived at March Air Reserve Base in California on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

March Air Force Base. Photo: Wikipedia

An airplane, background, carrying U.S. citizens being evacuated from Wuhan, China, makes a refueling stop at the north terminal at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska Tuesday evening, Jan. 28, 2020. (Bill Roth/Anchorage Daily News via AP)

A police car is seen at a closed terminal before the arrival of an aircraft chartered by the U.S. State Department to evacuate government employees and other Americans from the novel coronavirus threat in the Chinese city of Wuhan, at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S. January 28, 2020. Picture taken January 28, 2020. REUTERS/Kerry Tasker

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Zhong Nanshan, the man who fought Sars, says wave of infections will slow in early February; public health expert in Hong Kong disagrees
Dean of Hong Kong University’s medical school says outbreak to peak in April or May



Zhong Nanshan, the man who fought Sars, says wave of infections will slow in early February; public health expert in Hong Kong disagrees.


China’s ‘demon’ virus leaves health experts at odds on when infection rate will slow

Zhong Nanshan, the man who fought Sars, says wave of infections will slow in early February; public health expert in Hong Kong disagrees Dean of Hong Kong University’s medical school says outbreak to peak in April or May

Zhong Nanshan, the man who fought Sars, says wave of infections will slow in early February; public health expert in Hong Kong disagrees

Dean of Hong Kong University’s medical school says outbreak to peak in April or May