First Chinese coronavirus cases may have been infected in October 2019, says new research
- Scientists from University of California San Diego calculate that people in Hubei may have contracted the coronavirus several weeks before the first known cases
- Paper published in Science magazine says this timing would mean the disease had established a firm foothold among humans before it had been identified
The earliest Covid-19 cases in Hubei province might have emerged as early as October 2019 – weeks before the first known cases – according to new research.
A study published in the journal Science last week said these cases would have been difficult to detect and the disease would have established a firm foothold among the human population before it was identified.
“It is highly probable that Sars-CoV-2 was circulating in Hubei province at low levels in early November 2019, and possibly as early as October 2019, but not earlier,” the researchers from the University of California San Diego wrote.
“By the time Covid-19 was first identified, the virus had firmly established itself in Wuhan. The delay highlights the difficulty in surveillance for novel zoonotic pathogens with high transmissibility and moderate mortality rate.”
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The study examined ways the coronavirus may have evolved based on publicly available genome sequences and epidemiological simulations.