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Exclusive | Coronavirus outbreak may have started in September, say British scientists
- Study narrows origin to a period between September and December, after virus mutated to a form that was harmful to humans
- It is more likely to have come from southern China than Wuhan, but further analysis of bats and other potential host animals is needed, geneticist says
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The first outbreak of the coronavirus could have happened further south than the central Chinese city of Wuhan as early as September, according to a team of scientists led by the University of Cambridge.
Researchers investigating the virus’ origin analysed a large number of strains from around the world and calculated that the initial outbreak occurred in a window between September 13 and December 7.
“The virus may have mutated into its final ‘human-efficient’ form months ago, but stayed inside a bat or other animal or even human for several months without infecting other individuals,” University of Cambridge geneticist Peter Forster said on Thursday.
“Then, it started infecting and spreading among humans between September 13 and December 7, generating the network we present in [the journal] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [PNAS].”
The team analysed the strains using a phylogenetic network – a mathematical algorithm that can map the global movement of organisms through the mutation of their genes.
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