Taiwan tensions to grow in 2025, but risk of war low as Taipei divisions distract: report

Hong Kong think tank predicts Taiwanese leader William Lai will steer clear of provoking Beijing as he fights political battles at home

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Taiwanese lawmakers brawl over a series of controversial bills on December 20 in the island’s parliament building in Taipei. Photo: AFP

Published: 4:45pm, 31 Dec 2024Updated: 7:20pm, 31 Dec 2024

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait will grow in 2025, but the risk of war remains low as the island’s leader, William Lai Ching-te, is expected to direct his energy towards mending internal political divisions, according to a forecast by a Hong Kong-based think tank.

Lai’s attention was likely to be focused on the island’s internal political struggles and his political opponents, said the report from Centre for Globalisation Hong Kong.

He is also expected to rely on external forces – possibly Washington and its allies – to carry out his political agenda, according to the report.

Taiwan has braced for more political turbulence since its opposition-controlled legislature passed three bills earlier this month that could curtail the powers of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The bills involve amendments to the election and recall law, constitutional court procedure law, and government funding allocations. The move triggered conflicts in Taiwan’s legislature and protests by thousands of DPP supporters.

The report added that Lai would not “actively provoke conflicts” with Beijing.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force, if necessary. The United States, like most countries, does not recognise the self-governed island as an independent state but is opposed to any attempt to take it by force and is legally bound to arm it for defence.