China set for third plenum that could prove a ‘defining moment’ of Xi Jinping era
- The Communist Party gathering is expected to outline the general course of economic policy at a time the country is facing major challenges
The event could be the most important “defining moment” of President Xi Jinping’s rule since a similar gathering in 2013 that set out his vision for reforming the country, according to one political researcher from Tsinghua University, who requested anonymity.
He said the watershed third plenum would be used by the party elite to review achievements under Xi’s leadership and lay down plans to hit goals set for 2035, “which will lay the groundwork for the president’s grand legacy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049”.
The event, formally known as the third plenum of the 20th Central Committee, is also likely to offer more details about the road map for reaching a series of interim industrial and technological goals by 2035, and the target of becoming a technology superpower with a world-class military by 2049.
The event is expected to close on Thursday with a brief communique summarising the key decisions. According to precedent, this should then be followed within days by a full party document outlining the decisions made.
However, observers warned that these documents would only set out the general policy direction – often overlaid with party jargon – and a fuller picture would only emerge once specific policy details and the country’s next five-year plan are unveiled in the coming months.
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China’s third plenum: what to expect from the much-delayed policy meeting
There will also be keen interest in any clues about the fate of Qin Gang, who was abruptly dismissed as foreign minister last year, and a possible announcement that Li Shangfu’s successor Dong Jun has been given a place on the Central Military Commission.
State news agency Xinhua has been setting the tone for the gathering with a series of articles praising the achievements of the past decade, followed by another series on the “inspirational” lessons to be drawn from Xi’s rule in the past decade.
Meanwhile, the security apparatus has been urged to “make every effort to safeguard national security and social stability” in the build-up, with Chen Wenqing, the party’s most senior security official, stressing that the event coincides with this year’s 75th anniversary of the founding the People’s Republic of China.
Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, said Xi would use the plenum to advance his existing agenda focused on party control, technological self-reliance, financial de-risking, social welfare, and supply-side industrial policy.
“But the political challenges of economic pessimism could lead to some very modest ‘positive surprises’. The most intriguing new signals ahead of the plenum suggest the possibility of more pro-business policies in hi-tech domains, although Xi does not want to unleash entrepreneurs and markets but rather harness them to develop technology and boost manufacturing,” he said.
“Positive but not transformational signals that appear likely include increasing central borrowing to support local public services, allowing localities to raise and retain more revenue, cracking down on local protectionism, relaxing the household registration system, reducing the negative list for foreign investment, and reforms to data markets, rural land rights, and SOE [state-owned enterprises] governance.”
A political analyst based in mainland China, who also requested anonymity, said the event would provide the blueprint for the next five-year plan, which will run from 2026 to 2030.
“If you find the party language [in the documents published after the plenum] too difficult to understand, just wait for the next government work report in March and the next five-year plan, major important policies will be there. You should wait until then to decide if there is anything to celebrate,” he said.
