How China hopes to chart path to soft landing after Covid restrictions start to ease
- A feared wave of infections would put enormous stress on the healthcare and public service systems and, Beijing fears, could even trigger political instability
- Improving the relatively low vaccination rates, especially among the elderly, could be a key to how the new strategy plays out
Days after a deadly fire in Urumqi propelled fatigued communities to take to the streets, China has initiated an unannounced yet palpable movement away from its “zero-Covid” strategy by lifting lockdowns, ending mass testing and reopening public venues across key provinces.
But Beijing is concerned that the inevitable wave of infections after restrictions are loosened, could lead to a surge in deaths, overwhelm the health system and trigger political instability.
Policy and public health analysts say there are a number of preconditions that must be met – including fully equipped hospitals, a well-informed population and satisfactory vaccination rates, especially among high-risk groups such as the elderly – if any forceful departure from the policy is to result in a soft landing, where the population coexists with the virus while avoiding a high death rate or economic or political turmoil.
“I don’t think it would be safe to transition away from the zero-Covid strategy in the short-term future,” said Ben Cowling, head of the epidemiology division at the University of Hong Kong’s School of Public Health. “A rapid exit, like that of Hong Kong in February, could result in a public health disaster.”
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Using data from Hong Kong’s BA.1 wave, the life science information and analytics company Airfinity predicted that an immediate lifting of zero-Covid policy on the mainland could result in between 167 million and 279 million cases nationwide, and between 1.3 million and 2.1 million deaths.
