China’s provinces bank on high growth amid export rebound
- Hubei and Hainan lead the country with targets of 10 per cent while Xinjiang aims for 5.5 per cent
- China’s success in controlling the coronavirus will increase international confidence in its production capacity, economist says
The provinces of Hubei and Hainan lead the nation with 10 per cent while Tibet’s goal is 9 per cent, according to the provincial governments.
Observers said there was general confidence that the rebound from the third-quarter of last year would continue as export orders from around the world were diverted to China, where the coronavirus is largely under control.
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The release of the provincial growth targets is seen as a prelude to the annual session of the National People’s Congress, which will get under way in Beijing on March 4.
China’s economy grew by 2.3 per cent in 2020, the lowest rate since 1976. But China is also likely to be the only major economy to have expanded last year.
The economic powerhouses of Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong and Zhejiang are targeting growth of “about 6 or 6.5 per cent”. Hainan, which has ambitions to be a free-trade port like Hong Kong, said its economic growth would be “no less than 10 per cent” in 2021, up from “about 6.5 per cent” for 2020.
Authorities in the rust-belt provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin and debt-plagued Tianjin set the lowest growth rates of about 5 per cent, with Xinjiang on 5.5 per cent.
China GDP: two-thirds of provinces beat national growth figure in 2020
The International Monetary Fund forecast last month China would grow by 7.9 per cent this year, down from the 8.2 per cent growth outlook made in October. The IMF cited headwinds from technological decoupling with the United States and domestic financial risks, to restrictions on fundraising via Hong Kong for Chinese companies for the downgrade.
Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform, said Beijing hoped its shift towards greater internal supply and demand could become the main growth driver for this year.
“China’s success in controlling the coronavirus will certainly increase the confidence of multinational companies in China’s production capacity and slow relocation of industrial capacity out of the country,” Peng said.
“Also, China’s aggressive policies in supply chain and tech innovation will stimulate a large investment impulse.”
But there was uncertainty from the tech war with the US, diplomatic conflicts with the West, as well as the threat of rural residents falling back into poverty, he said.
