Forget L-shaped curve, economy will grow by 6pc to 2030, says economist
Lu Zhongyuan, former No 2 at State Council’s Development Research Centre, says forecasts of economic contraction are ‘too pessimistic’ even in today’s difficult global conditions
China’s growth trajectory will not be the “L-shape curve” as described by an unnamed “authoritative person” in the official People’s Daily in May but a smooth slope with annual average growth of about 6 per cent by 2030, according to a retired government economist.
Lu Zhongyuan, who was vice-president of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, told the South China Morning Post that forecasts of a deep fall in China’s headline growth rate were too pessimistic.
“It’s misleading to call it an L-shape growth line. It might prompt people to think that China growth is collapsing, which is not the case. The real situation will be a smooth line like a slope,” said Lu, who is attending the annual China Conference in Hong Kong, hosted by the Post.
“The floor of China’s growth rate in future is definitely not zero, not 1 to 2 per cent or even 3 to 4 per cent – it should be 5 to 6 per cent.”
Lu made the same forecasts in earlier studies, but insists they are still valid – that average growth from 2025 to 2030 will be 5.9 per cent in a benchmark scenario.
“There could be minor revisions to specific numbers, but the general trend of smooth moderation is solid,” said Lu, who advised past top leaders on economic policies.
