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Amber Wang

Potential US ground operations against Iran might constrain Tehran, but the prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz were “highly uncertain”, Chinese analysts said.
They also cautioned that any such escalation was likely to result in heavy casualties, with one of them saying Iran “might even welcome” such close combat.
US President Donald Trump on Monday announced a five-day halt to military strikes on Iranian power plants.
He made the announcement on social media as the US’ 48-hour deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approached, and after Iran threatened to target American fuel and energy facilities in the region if its infrastructure was attacked.


Trump’s decision to hit pause came as Washington was weighing whether to deploy thousands of troops to Iran.
One option under discussion was to reopen passage through the Strait of Hormuz by sending forces to Iranian ports or small islands in the Persian Gulf to mitigate threats to shipping, NBC News reported on Saturday.
Other operations considered by the Trump administration included sending ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, as well as deploying US troops to Iran’s shoreline, Reuters said last week.
Such moves would mark a significant escalation in US operations against Iran, which have so far relied mainly on aerial and naval strikes since Operation Epic Fury was launched on February 28.
Iran has effectively sealed the strategic strait – through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil flows – to most vessels, driving up oil prices and fuelling global economic concerns.
According to Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing-based think tank, Trump consequently faces “great diplomatic and political pressure”.
He said the priority for the United States was to clear the strait.
“Operations could involve seizing key islands or coastal targets around the Strait of Hormuz,” Hu said. “Such moves could allow Washington to exert partial control over the strait by constraining Iran’s activities and pressuring Tehran into concessions.”
However, he cautioned that the effectiveness of such operations in reopening the strait was “highly uncertain”, given Iran’s firepower along its coastline, which was likely to result in greater American casualties.
“Much will depend on US resolve and the effectiveness of the operations. They will face threats from Iran’s coastal artillery and missile positions along the Strait of Hormuz, as well as its small boats,” Hu said.
Since the start of the war, Trump has made clear his openness to deploying troops into Iran.
According to a New York Times report last week, about 2,200 Marines aboard three warships were heading towards the Persian Gulf region where they could be used to help clear the strait or seize Kharg Island.
Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf is Iran’s primary oil export hub. The small coral island sitting about 33km (21 miles) off the Iranian coast handles about 90 per cent of the country’s crude shipments.
Hu said seizing the island would “not directly help reopen the strait, but it would give the US greater leverage to pressure Iran into making concessions”, given its importance to Iran’s economy.
Trump said on March 13 that the United ‌States had carried out strikes against “every military target” on Kharg Island.
“For reasons ⁠of decency, I have ‌chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil ‌Infrastructure on the ⁠Island,” he said in a social media post.


The US Central Command on Saturday said that “US forces successfully struck more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, while preserving the oil infrastructure”, according to Reuters.
Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military analyst and former member of the air force, also warned that any attempt to seize islands in the Persian Gulf or deploy troops along Iran’s coastline would carry significant risks.
“If the US were to seize islands such as Kharg, it would have to assess whether it could withstand Iranian missile strikes. Its location is only dozens of kilometres from Iran, well within [the] range of rockets and artillery,” Fu said.
“If, instead, the US attempts to seize positions along Iran’s coastline, once ground troops land on Iranian territory, Iranian forces could counter-attack and compress them from the opposite direction.
“Both island seizures and coastal landings carry risks that are difficult to mitigate. In fact, Iran might even welcome such a scenario for close-range counter-attacks.”
Fu added that even if islands were taken, the US might still have to clear naval mines that Iran is reported to have deployed in the strait.
“Mine clearance is a major challenge. US capabilities in this area are limited and would likely rely on allies. So, how would those mines ultimately be dealt with?”
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, said that the deployment of US ground forces could have a significant impact, potentially maximising the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.


“It could also create the most favourable ground conditions for the United States to break through any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” Shi said.
“As long as Iran’s missile launch sites and drone bases around the strait are largely destroyed, how could the waterway remain closed?”
However, he too warned that the risks were high.
“If a force of that size cannot bring a swift, US-favourable end to the conflict, it could weigh heavily on the midterm elections [back home]. In short, it is a dilemma for Trump: high potential gains but equally high risks.”


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Seizing Kharg Island may ‘give the US greater leverage to pressure Iran into making concessions’: South China Sea analyst


Seizing Kharg Island may ‘give the US greater leverage to pressure Iran into making concessions’: South China Sea analyst.


What if US ground forces march into Iran? Chinese experts weigh the risks

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Seizing Kharg Island may ‘give the US greater leverage to pressure Iran into making concessions’: South China Sea analyst

Seizing Kharg Island may ‘give the US greater leverage to pressure Iran into making concessions’: South China Sea analyst