Could Trump’s return mark the start of a new race with China over drones for the military?

The second Donald Trump administration is expected to spur increased competition with China to develop and produce dual-use drones, which have proved a low-cost but effective weapon on the modern battlefield. Drones could be a central plank of the president-elect’s “America first” agenda, but some observers have said that US commercial drones would be too expensive to compete with those made in China. Others have said further trade restrictions would have a limited impact on China’s dominance in the industry despite Trump’s promise to jack up tariffs on Chinese goods. The use of drones designed to capture wide-view photos and footage with a first-person view has become widespread among rescue services and mappers as well as ordinary members of the public. However, they also have a military use and have featured extensively on battlefields in the Middle East and Ukraine. The US military sees drones as playing a key role in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait and has warned it is planning to create an “unmanned hellscape” using thousands of the devices if mainland Chinese forces attack the island. Beijing views Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland. The United States, in common with most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but opposes any attempt to take it by force and is legally bound to supply the island with weapons to defend itself. Although the US has traditionally had an edge over China in the production of military drones, it is lagging behind in building a robust, self-sufficient supply chain for dual-use drones – something that could hamper its ability to adapt the technology to meet its needs in the event of conflict. “The drone supply chain is a critically important issue, including for American security and defence,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at Washington-based think tank Stimson Centre, citing the need to be able to “produce these drones at scale”. During his first term in office, Trump focused on restricting government use of Chinese drones on security grounds – triggering a tit-for-tat series of measures and countermeasures. This time around, Grieco said she expected Trump would increase his efforts “to promote US domestic manufacturing of drones and drone components”. The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security is considering new rules that would ban or restrict Chinese drones on national security grounds and has started a public consultation on the measures, which will run until early March. The department warned that threats from China and Russia “may offer our adversaries the ability to remotely access and manipulate these devices, exposing sensitive US data”. Trump has vowed to impose “an additional 10 per cent tariff above any additional tariffs” on imports from China and has previously threatened tariffs of up to 60 per cent on all Chinese goods. Both Beijing and Washington have increased support for their domestic drone industries and stepped up drone technology transfers to the military in recent years as part of their wider contest for technological leadership. But their increasing military role has heightened concerns about the ability of the manufacturers to access and collect data remotely. Yue Gang, a military analyst and retired People’s Liberation Army colonel, predicted the incoming Trump administration would continue the “drone rivalry” that began during his previous term in office. However he said it would be “very difficult for the US to contain China” in this area, citing its “cost advantage and stable supply chain”. Yue said many US drones relied on Chinese parts, adding: “As a comprehensive supply chain takes decades to develop … it would hardly be possible for [the US] to realise this in a short period of time.” China’s industrial policy has described the drone industry as being of strategic importance, while defence policy directives have also highlighted the sector’s importance for the military. Washington has been working to reduce reliance on Chinese drones for more than a decade and Congress banned the Pentagon from buying them in 2019. The same year saw the imposition of the first tariffs on Chinese drones, with the rate reaching 25 per cent in September of that year. Commercial Chinese drones currently account for at least 75 per cent of the US domestic market, according to the Department of Commerce, and major manufacturers such as DJI, the global market leader, have blamed the tariffs for price rises in America. In 2020 the Commerce Department added several drone manufacturers, including DJI, to the government’s export control list, citing their support for the Chinese military and involvement in alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Meanwhile, the US government has been trying to source more drones from domestic operators, as well suppliers in places such as Japan and Taiwan. It also set up the Blue UAS project in 2020 to vet companies supplying commercial drones and components to the Pentagon. But Grieco warned that “US domestic component suppliers are quite limited, particularly compared to China … [and] will require investments in domestic manufacturing capabilities and supply chain chains to reduce dependency on foreign components”. She said Ukraine’s armed forces had reportedly found US-made commercial drones to be “clunky, glitchy, and overpriced for the capabilities they offer”. Grieco said it would be difficult for American firms making small dual-use drones to compete against Chinese manufacturers: “They have the advantage of scale – Chinese manufacturers produce and sell a lot of them, which brings down the price point.” She also pointed to reports that companies such as DJI had received government funding. “Drone production will undoubtedly be a key battleground in US-China competition [during the next administration],” according to Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. She said the main areas of this competition would be the ability to mass produce drones, the development of weapons that could operate autonomously to “provide a significant battlefield advantage” and improving cost effectiveness. “Whichever side can produce high-quality drones at a lower price will be able to procure more while conserving resources,” she said. Drones have been used extensively by both sides in the Ukraine war, with Kyiv relying on FPV, or first-person-view drones, for strikes, reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. It has also sourced a large number of off-the-shelf Chinese drones and electronic parts – such as batteries, radio modules and flight control systems – to build its own drones. However, direct shipments from China to Russia reached US$14.5 million in 2023, dwarfing the US$200,000 figure for Ukraine in the same period, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “Evidence suggests that China supplies Russia with critical components, particularly for drone production, in exchange for operational insights and battlefield data. This exchange enables China to enhance its own military capabilities by learning from Russia’s combat experiences,” Bondar said. Beijing has repeatedly denied accusations that it has supplied weapons to both sides of the war. China has been tightening its own export restrictions on drones and components with potential military uses, with Beijing saying it opposes “civilian drones being used for non-peaceful means”. It has also criticised the “imposition of illegal sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals by certain countries” using the “excuse” that they produce weapons-capable drones. In recent months, the US and European Union have sanctioned a number of Chinese companies and individuals for allegedly supporting Russia’s war effort, some of whom are accused of helping Moscow acquire drone components. China has also sanctioned US drone companies, including leading manufacturer Skydio, over arms sales to Taiwan. However, Yue said Ukrainian forces had been giving Chinese drone makers feedback about how the products’ performance on the battlefield – and this information would help the PLA “set adequate technical standards for drone use based on the feedback received by the firms”. Despite Beijing’s restrictions on exports to Ukraine and Russia, “both sides were still able to acquire [drone] components and assemble them for their own use”, according to Fu Qianshao, a retired PLA Air Force equipment specialist. “Against such a backdrop, I’m afraid a ban by the US would not affect [Chinese firms’] global presence but might even expand our market share [in components],” he said. “Regular [US] citizens might also oppose the ban as quite some of them are using DJI or other Chinese drones, and a ban would make after-sales service and repair pretty challenging.” Fu said that while the US was capable of developing a civilian drone supply chain, “the cost would be too high for them”. He added that previous tariffs had failed to reduce US demand for Chinese civilian drones and they had “caused more losses to the US … as American consumers have to pay more for the same drones than in other countries”.

Could Trump’s return mark the start of a new race with China over drones for the military?

The US is lagging behind its main rival when it comes to dual-use drones that play a key role in many aspects of modern warfare