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Seong Hyeon Choi

Sylvie Zhuang

China’s intercontinental ballistic missile test on Wednesday has put the rocket used under the spotlight.
Beijing has not said what type of rocket was used but, based on photos released a day after the test, military analysts have concluded that it was a variant of the Dong Feng-31.
The DF-31 (whose name means East Wind-31) is one of three types of ICMBs in the People’s Liberation Army’s arsenal – the others being the DF-5, which first entered service in the early 1970s, and the more modern DF-41.
The three-stage DF-31, which first entered service in 2006, and its variants can carry either a single warhead or a payload carrying three or four smaller warheads that can be released to attack multiple targets.
Wednesday’s launch saw the missile with a dummy warhead travel 12,000km (7,460 miles) from its launch site in Hainan, passing near the Philippines and Guam and landing in the Pacific near the French territory of the Marquesas Islands.
It was the first time in 44 years that China had tested an ICBM beyond its own airspace and Fu Qianshao, a former PLA equipment specialist, said China wanted to test the model to improve its long-range strike capacity.
“Although the DF-31 can reach intercontinental ballistic missile levels, it has never undergone a full-range launch test, so this experiment is necessary,” Fu said.
The missile has two variants – the DF-31A and DF-31AG – with a range of up to 13,200km (8,200 miles), putting the US mainland within reach.
The latter of these two has a mobile launch platform designed to travel across rough terrain, increasing its mobility and allowing the PLA to disperse its warheads to make it harder for an enemy to destroy them.
Based on its range and a comparison of the launch photos with its previous public appearances, analysts have concluded that the DF-31AG was the missile used in the test on Wednesday.




“The DF-31 AG is a road mobile missile and is actually an ‘off-road mobile’ system – unlike the DF-41 which is confined to road networks, and has multiple warheads,” said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
“My guess is that they wanted to test the DF-31AG from a rough location to get as realistic a test as possible of this missile.”
The variant first appeared in public during a parade to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the PLA in 2017.
There are three known DF-31AG brigades, with a total 36 launchers, based in the northwestern province of Gansu and the central provinces of Hunan and Henan, with a further three brigades equipped with the earlier variant.

China is deemed to have one of the fastest growing nuclear arsenals in the world. According to a Pentagon report published last October, the PLA Rocket Force had around 350 ICBMs in 2022 and has “doubled and continues to grow” the number of launchers.
A recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China had added 90 warheads to its stockpile last year and now has around 500 in total. It also estimated that within 10 years its number of ICBMs could pass the Russian and US totals.


What do we know about the DF-31 variant used in China’s recent ICBM test?

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China’s first test ICBM launch in 44 years stirs questions

China’s rocket force

The DF-31AG, the type of missile believed to have been launched in Wednesday’s test. Photo: Weibo

The missile is believed to have been launched in Hainan province. Photo: AFP

The PLA Rocket Force launches an intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday in China’s first known ICBM test in 44 years. Photo: AFP / Chinese People’s Liberation Army News and Communication Centre 

The PLA released pictures of the ICBM test on Thursday. Photo: AFP

The French Polynesian authorities say the missile landed in the ocean near the Marquesas Islands. Photo: Shutterstock

News

China

Military

The missile fired into the Pacific travelled around 12,000km and appears to have been a model that can be fired from a mobile launcher suited to rough terrain


The missile fired into the Pacific travelled around 12,000km and appears to have been a model that can be fired from a mobile launcher suited to rough terrain.


China's military weapons

Nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)