China drones can counter US ‘hellscape’ in Taiwan Strait: analysts
- But observers warn that the plan signals a change in Washington’s long-standing policy of ambiguity on the Taiwanese issue
Chinese military observers said the PLA would be able to counter any US drones with larger-scale swarms of the devices equipped with advanced AI applications, but added that Beijing needs to be alert amid growing risks of a change in Washington’s strategy.
The new head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, outlined the “hellscape” plan to the Washington Post, in an interview on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
In the interview, published on Monday, Paparo said the plan was designed to thwart “Beijing’s likely strategy to overwhelm [Taiwan] with a massive attack, with little warning”.
“I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities … I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything,” he said.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary. The US, like most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as independent but is opposed to any unilateral change in the status quo.
While the US is the island’s biggest supplier of arms, Washington has long pursued an approach of strategic ambiguity, avoiding an outright promise to use force in the island’s defence.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, noted that the US is showing more signs of “strategic clarity” in its defence of Taiwan, which could mark a departure from its long-standing policy.
Paparo’s remarks indicated an intensified confrontation over the Taiwan issue, despite Beijing and Washington efforts in recent months to ease the mounting tensions between them, according to Shi.
The plan to “deploy thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface ships and aerial drones to flood the area” as soon as the PLA moves across the Taiwan Strait, may be one of several strategic or tactical perceptions in the US, he said.
“But it showed the preparations for war by both sides are becoming more subtle and serious.”
Shi pointed out that US President Joe Biden has said on at least four occasions that the US would defend Taiwan from mainland attack, revealing his “very profound and firm conviction”, he said.
“The overall US policy remains strategy ambiguity but for quite some time, the strategic clarity element has become increasingly apparent.”
Last month, the PLA conducted two days of military drills – including a blockade of the island – in response to Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te’s “provocative” inauguration speech, which Beijing said sent a dangerous signal about independence.
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Replicator aims to field the drones at a scale of “multiple thousands in multiple domains” within the next 18 to 24 months, explicitly targeting China, the Pentagon said.
Mainland military analyst Fu Qianshao said the new US operational plan draws on what is happening in the war in Ukraine and is a new strategy developed against the backdrop of a declining American shipbuilding industry.
“In recent years, China’s military and civilian drones have developed rapidly,” he said, noting that China and the US are on par in the field of swarm drones.
“However, the US should not forget that China has the world’s largest drone production capacity. We will also use a large number of aerial robots to deal with our opponents. The Americans should think about how to deal with a larger PLA drone fleet to counter them,” Fu said.
“It is possible for the US to deploy thousands of drones to the Taiwan Strait, but the key is its airbases will be attacked and we have a series of countermeasures, including electromagnetic interference or emerging interception methods.”
Another mainland military adviser Song Zhongping said the PLA could deploy unmanned systems using advanced AI technolog on a larger scale to counter the US drone swarms.
