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Taiwan
ChinaMilitary

Window for possible PLA attack on Taiwan ‘highly unpredictable’, US admiral says

  • ‘Many complex factors’ will play into decision to try to take the island by force, according to Pacific Fleet commander
  • Those factors include Beijing’s examination of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Samuel Paparo says

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Beijing has not ruled out the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Photo: PLA Eastern Theatre Command/Weibo
Kyodo
The commander of the US Navy’s Pacific Fleet on Monday said the time frame of mainland China’s possible attempt to take Taiwan by force was unpredictable, with Beijing apparently learning from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Admiral Samuel Paparo also stressed the importance of “constant vigilance,” in what appears to be remarks intended to play down an assessment voiced last year by then Indo-Pacific Command chief Philip Davidson that Beijing could invade Taiwan “in the next six years”.

“I think the window of a potential unification by force is highly, highly unpredictable,” Paparo told reporters in Washington, while noting that the so-called Davidson window was “actually based on open source speeches” made by Chinese leaders.

Noting the “many complex factors” that would play into Beijing’s decision to attempt to unify with the self-ruled democratic island by force, including its examination of the Ukraine crisis, the commander said: “I think, to anybody that for somehow believes that we can take a breath or relax or relent on our own commitment to a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ … I would not support that because nature is so unpredictable.”

Admiral Samuel Paparo stressed the importance of “constant vigilance”. Photo: Handout
Admiral Samuel Paparo stressed the importance of “constant vigilance”. Photo: Handout

Taiwan and mainland China have been separately governed since they split as a result of a civil war in 1949. Beijing, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province, has since endeavoured to bring the island back into its fold.

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