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Amber Wang

Russia is not deploying all of its troops against Ukraine, opting instead to use limited force to push Kyiv to negotiate, Chinese military experts said.
As talks started on Monday near the Belarus border, the Ukrainian armed forces said they had succeeded in slowing the pace of the Russian offensive.
Many of the Russian weapons systems used so far had been largely tactical, but the situation might become more complex and worsen, experts said.
Song Zhongping, a former Chinese military instructor, said Putin’s combat operation was meant to “control” rather than occupy and destroy cities in Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to make a decision.
“Ukraine facing the choice of whether to split or unify. If Ukraine wants to maintain the unity of its territory, it should seize the time for talks,” Song said, adding that unity would not include Crimea and the two separatist territories in Ukraine’s east that Russia has recognised as independent states.
But as the war went on, Russia might deploy more force, he said.


Russian forces have launched more than 160 missiles into Ukraine, mainly short-and medium-range ballistic weapons.
That includes short-range, medium-range, cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles and sea-launched missiles from the Black Sea.
Russia has also reportedly used about 75 fixed-wing heavy and medium bombers as a part of this initial onslaught. The targets so far have been focused on military and air defence networks, barracks and ammunition warehouses.
On Sunday, Putin ordered his military chiefs to put the nuclear deterrent forces on a “special regime of combat duty”.
Song said that meant strategic nuclear forces were in “a standby state”, and the military could launch nuclear weapons on command.
Oil soars as more sanctions on Russia spur fears of an energy crisis
Zhao Tong, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the increased level of alert was mostly to signal political resolve.
“Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling is basically to announce that Russia is not scared of further escalation in the conflict, including against Nato and the United States,” Zhao said.
“Tactically, it may seek to achieve any or all of [a number of] goals.”
He said those goals included stopping further Nato and European supplies of military support to Ukraine; preventing further economic sanctions on Russia; and deterring Nato military action.
Zhao said that so far Russian forces appeared to have limited the use of heavy arms, taking some care to avoid causing major civilian casualties.
He also said Russia had reportedly launched hundreds of tactical missiles into Ukraine, some of which might be able to carry nuclear and conventional warheads.


But there was no sign that Russia planned to deploy nuclear-armed missile systems or other strategic weapon platforms.
“Strategic weapons are for strategic deterrence, not war, and are thus largely irrelevant at this stage of war,” Zhao said.
Even if Putin’s goal was to occupy Ukraine, tactical weapon systems would be more useful for achieving this purpose. Strategic weapons would likely be reserved for use against Nato and American strategic forces in case of a much broader war between the major military powers, Zhao said.
What lessons are there for China in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a military expert in Beijing with a military-affiliated research institution said Russia’s goal was to cultivate a pro-Russian government, rather than take over the whole country, and its operation so far had been “limited” in terms of weapons used and strike measures.
“Russia is not using massive force to attack Ukraine, and its targets are limited to the capital, strategic hubs, and military targets to push Ukraine to compromise,” he said.
“Russia has not carried out a large-scale operation against the whole country, and the weapons used are basically limited to tactical weapons. No strategic weapons have been used yet.”
The high alert state of nuclear forces would escalate the situation, he said, though it was very unlikely that any of the nuclear-armed countries would use nuclear weapons.
However, the United States might escalate its pressure and Russia might continue to increase the scale and intensity of its operations, he said.


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News

China

Military


No sign that Moscow plans to deploy nuclear-armed missile systems or other strategic weapons, observer says
Putin’s sabre-rattling mostly ‘a signal of political resolve’



No sign that Moscow plans to deploy nuclear-armed missile systems or other strategic weapons, observer says.


Ukraine war

Russia is limiting military force in Ukraine but escalation still possible: Chinese analysts

No sign that Moscow plans to deploy nuclear-armed missile systems or other strategic weapons, observer says Putin’s sabre-rattling mostly ‘a signal of political resolve’

No sign that Moscow plans to deploy nuclear-armed missile systems or other strategic weapons, observer says

Putin’s sabre-rattling mostly ‘a signal of political resolve’