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Risk of Taiwan Strait conflict ‘at all-time high’, Beijing-backed think tank says
- Researchers looked at the two sides’ military strength, trade relations, public opinion, political events and support from allies
- Changing political dynamic and Washington’s closer relations with Taipei seen as key ‘destructive factors’
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Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have risen to the point where the risk of armed conflict is at “an all-time high”, according to a Beijing-backed think tank.
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The China Cross-Strait Academy released a report on Wednesday on relations across the narrow stretch of water that separates mainland China from Taiwan. It said researchers had looked at factors including the two sides’ military strength, trade relations, public opinion, political events and support from allies, concluding that they were “on the brink of war”.
The think tank, based in Hong Kong, is newly founded and led by Lei Xiying, a committee member of the Communist Party-backed All-China Youth Federation.
Its conclusion was based on an index of the risk level of armed conflict across the strait, which the researchers put at 7.21 for 2021, on a scale of minus 10 to 10.
They also looked at the same factors dating back to the 1950s to come up with comparative risk indexes. They said in the early 1950s, when the anti-communist Nationalist forces had fled from the mainland to Taiwan, the index was lower than it is now, at 6.7.
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