Advertisement
Taiwan
ChinaMilitary

China’s military moves targeting Taiwan are more about intimidation than invasion, analysts say

  • Strategy is seen as a tolerable one for Beijing while it focuses on bigger issues like overhauling its economy and managing competition with Washington
  • ‘There is still no incentive for Beijing to provoke a war over Taiwan, since war would only make all of China’s problems far worse’

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
0
A Taiwanese fighter jet shadows a Chinese bomber over the Taiwan Strait in February. Photo: Military News Agency, ROC
Kristin Huang
China is pushing a new strategy to carefully step up military pressure on self-ruled Taiwan, but not to the point of provoking a real war, analysts said.
Recent moves include military drills conducted by the People’s Liberation Army near the Taiwan Strait, which included an island invasion drill during Taiwan’s “Double Tenth” holiday and an assault landing drill that was aimed at “connecting the last 1km” to conquer an island.

Last month Chinese fighters and bombers crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait entering the island’s air defence identification zone almost on a daily basis afterwards, according to notices from Taiwanese national defence ministry.

00:42

China threatens retaliation over US plans to supply Taiwan with arms

China threatens retaliation over US plans to supply Taiwan with arms
The change in Beijing’s military strategy comes as Taiwan and the United States are edging closer, including US health secretary Alex Azar’s visit to the island in August. He was the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan in 41 years, and Beijing said the move violated its core interests.

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and opposes the United States’ official ties with Taipei, saying it violates the one-China principle.

China’s escalating military activities are designed, in large part, to disorient Taiwanese leaders and complicate decision-making and reaction times, said Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the US think tank Rand.

“From Beijing’s perspective, it is quite beneficial to create a new normal of intruding into Taiwan’s airspace – and as such this is very likely to ramp up – because it reduces Taiwan’s ability to determine whether specific actions represent the start of a real war,” he said.

Advertisement