US-China war ‘likely’ but not inevitable, warns top political scientist

Harvard’s Graham Allison, known for his work on the ‘Thucydides trap’, says the rivals’ interdependence could help them avoid conflict

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US President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands in Beijing in November 2017. Photo: Reuters

Zhao Ziwenin Cambridge, Massachusetts

Published: 9:13pm, 7 Apr 2025

A prominent international relations scholar warned that war between China and the United States, while not inevitable, was probable, but their interdependence in areas such as the economy and climate could help them avoid conflict.

“War between US and China, inevitable? No. Likely? Yes,” said Graham Allison, the founding dean of Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. Allison, who served as assistant secretary of defence under former US president Bill Clinton, made the comments on Sunday at the Harvard College China Forum.

Allison is known for popularising the phrase “Thucydides trap” – the idea that a rising power and an established hegemon are destined for war. The term is named after the ancient Greek historian who chronicled the war between Athens and Sparta.

Beijing has viewed the Thucydides trap as a key framework for examining China-US relations. Many of China’s elites, including President Xi Jinping, have made reference to the idea, though they do not see it as inevitable.

Allison’s speech came after US President Donald Trump imposed an additional 34 per cent tariff on China last week, which provoked a tit-for-tat response from Beijing.

This latest round of duties – the third since Trump returned to the White House in January – has raised the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54 per cent.