Does China risk losing it all as it plays both sides in Myanmar’s lengthy civil war?

Beijing is trying to influence the trajectory of the conflict while keeping its strategic interests out of the crossfire

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Published: 6:00am, 25 Aug 2024

China has invested heavily in neighbouring Myanmar over the years, especially in its infrastructure – from ports and railways to the oil and gas sector – even after a military coup rocked the country in 2021.

Myanmar has also played a vital role in China’s ambitions for direct access to the Indian Ocean, as Beijing seeks to reduce dependence on the narrow chokepoints of the Strait of Malacca for its oil imports.

As Myanmar’s prolonged civil war between the ruling junta and armed ethnic minority groups becomes increasingly violent and destabilising, Beijing has re-emerged as a top mediator for its war-ravaged neighbour, seeking to promote peace talks while protecting its geostrategic and economic interests.

In a flurry of diplomatic moves in recent weeks, Beijing has stepped up engagement with incumbent and retired leaders of the junta following the military’s heavy losses in a battle near the Chinese border with a loose alliance of ethnic minority rebel groups.

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Myanmar’s military government lost direct control over 86% of its territory after months of fighting

Unlike its recent efforts to facilitate peace in the Middle East and in Ukraine, where China’s limited involvement was largely “strategic and long-term”, Beijing’s push for reconciliation talks in Myanmar is clearly driven by acute security concerns, according to observers.

Yun Sun, the director of the China Programme and co-director of the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said Beijing’s stepped-up role in Myanmar stemmed largely from the rebel takeover this month of Lashio, capital of the China-adjacent border state of Shan, marking one of the biggest victories for the anti-junta forces since the coup.