South China Sea: Hague ruling rejected by Beijing still casts long shadow over dispute

With Manila willing to return to talks despite clashes, Beijing should respond positively and avoid ‘nightmarish scenario’ of another arbitration

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The contested Second Thomas Shoal, where Beijing’s approach towards Manila is viewed as especially hostile. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:36pm, 25 Jun 2024Updated: 8:45pm, 25 Jun 2024

Eight years ago, when an international tribunal ruled against China over its disputes with the Philippines in the South China Sea, it was viewed as one of the biggest diplomatic setbacks for Beijing.

Beijing has maintained its hardline approach, first with non-involvement in the arbitration case and then steadfast refusal to accept the ruling. However, even though Beijing dismissed the tribunal’s rejection of its expansive maritime claims as a US-led attempt to encircle and isolate China, the ruling still casts a long shadow over the dispute.

According to people with knowledge of the situation, Beijing remains deeply worried about the lasting impact of the 2016 ruling, which marked a legal precedent for dispute settlement and a turning point in China’s ties with its neighbours in Southeast Asia.

Although China gained the upper hand in what started as a fishing dispute in 2012 near the contested Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Island in China and Panatag Shoal in the Philippines, it was the trigger for Manila to take the matter to the Hague-based tribunal the following year.

That was doubtlessly one of the most important moments in the internationalisation of the South China Sea dispute, defying strong opposition from Beijing.