Could China gain from Vietnam’s political infighting and ‘hardline’ tilt?
- Vietnam’s ‘blazing furnace’ anti-corruption campaign has claimed a number of senior figures, turmoil that one analyst says is unprecedented
- The cracks in the leadership may affect the ruling party’s ability to stand united to deal with China on the South China Sea dispute, observer says
The country’s former minister of public security To Lam, who is widely seen as playing a central role in the political upheaval, has been appointed president and is in a prime position to succeed Trong in the next leadership transition, along with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
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Vietnam’s president Vo Van Thuong quits after just one year
While the anti-graft drive has proved popular with the public, the expanding crackdown – which ensnared thousands of people, including top officials and senior business leaders – came as Vietnam sought to benefit from the diversification of Western investment away from China.
China is expected to benefit from Vietnam’s unprecedented political turmoil amid months-long infighting and internal machinations within the ruling Communist Party, and signs of a more authoritarian tilt in Hanoi, according to observers.
Bill Hayton, an associate fellow at the Chatham House Asia-Pacific Programme, described the turmoil as “unprecedented” and said it showed politics in Vietnam was “in a permanent state of flux”.
“We do not know if this is the end of the fight or a kind of halfway stage,” he said. “At the moment, it looks like the hardliners, notably the police generals and the Leninists, have won the battle.”
