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US-China relations
ChinaDiplomacy

Explainer | Why so much talk about Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and what does it mean for US-China relations?

  • Military experts warn that Pelosi’s trip could risk actual armed conflict
  • Pelosi would be accompanied by military support, according to Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to go to Taiwan on Tuesday but the controversial visit has not been confirmed. Photo: AFP
Cyril Ip
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday and would be the first House speaker to make the trip since 1997. Beijing has repeatedly warned Pelosi against visiting Taiwan.

Why is the visit controversial?

As speaker of the United States’ House of Representatives, Pelosi is the second in line to the presidency after the vice-president. While she does not have any direct responsibility for foreign affairs, if she visits the island Pelosi will be the highest ranking US politician to do so since a Republican predecessor, Newt Gingrich, made the trip in 1997.

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Blinken calls on China not to ‘escalate tensions’ over Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit

Blinken calls on China not to ‘escalate tensions’ over Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit

Under the one-China principle, Beijing regards the self-ruled island as a breakaway province, and vows to take it back by force if “peaceful reunification” fails. Beijing views any official contact between Taiwan and a foreign government as a violation of its sovereignty.

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In its own one-China policy, the US recognises Beijing as the sole legitimate government of China and acknowledges its position that Taiwan is a part of China. But under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 the US government provides defensive weapons to Taiwan.

Sensitivities have heightened amid the superpowers’ rocky relationship. Pelosi’s trip is seen by mainland China as a provocation and a move to support Taiwan independence.

Did Biden tell Pelosi to cancel her trip?

The US president does not exert control over the Congress, which comprises the House and the Senate. While President Joe Biden said earlier this month that military leaders had advised “it’s not a good idea right now”, the White House has clarified that Pelosi’s travel plan was a personal decision Biden could not interfere with.

Observers said that while that may be technically true, to assert that the president had no influence over Pelosi’s choice was an excuse. “Biden will certainly claim that Pelosi is beyond his control, but then who will be responsible for China-US relations?” said Zhu Feng, director of Nanjing University’s institute of international studies.

Furthermore, if Pelosi does visit, she will be accompanied by military support, according to Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
In the fifth call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Biden on Thursday, the latter underscored that the US’ position, which maintains that the island is part of China, had not changed, while Xi reiterated the one-China principle.

What would happen if Pelosi visited Taiwan?

Military experts have warned that Pelosi’s trip could risk actual armed conflict, with Beijing’s leadership being more aggressive and less tolerant of provocations and challenges from the Americans, given the narrowing of Beijing’s military technology gap with the US.

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