To avoid China-Taiwan military conflict, send Xi clear message on consequences: British spy chief

Chinese president, keenly watching developments in Ukraine, needs to be reminded of risks of a ‘misjudged invasion’, says head of MI6
‘We devote more effort to China than any other single subject,’ spy chief adds, saying it poses a bigger threat than counterterrorism

Espionage

Khushboo Razdan

Published: 6:25am, 22 Jul 2022

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A military conflict with China over Taiwan is “not inevitable” if the West sends a clear message to Xi Jinping about the dire consequences of a “misjudged invasion”, the head of Britain’s secret intelligence service said in his first public interview outside the UK.

Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service known as MI6, also emphasised the lessons to be gleaned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the significance of a possible defeat for Moscow in that conflict deterring Beijing from forcefully reuniting with Taiwan.

Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, Moore said he believed a military conflict with China over Taiwan, a self-governing island Beijing considers a renegade province, was “not inevitable at all”.

“It’s important that President Xi, as he calculates what he may or may not do with Taiwan, looks at what can go wrong with a misjudged invasion,” Moore added. “It’s important that we remind him of those risks.”

His remarks came a day after CIA director William Burns warned that China appeared determined to use force in Taiwan and that such a move was a matter of “when and how, not whether”. Burns said China was “unsettled” by Russian forces’ losses in Ukraine and that developments there were influencing China’s timeline on Taiwan.

Moore on Wednesday described the Russian military as “running out of steam” in Ukraine, facing a shortage of manpower and materiel, with the scenario likely triggering an “operational pause” that would allow Ukrainians a chance to strike back.

Meanwhile, Xi was watching events in Ukraine “like a hawk”, Moore said. He believed the Chinese leader “underestimates US resolve and power and that might lead him to miscalculate issues that we have been talking about over the last couple of days, particularly Taiwan”.

As Beijing and Washington keep a close eye on the situation in Ukraine, their relations with each other remain strained. On Tuesday it was reported that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi planned to visit Taiwan, and on Wednesday President Joe Biden said the US military had cautioned against the trip, saying it was “not a good idea right now”.

The Chinese foreign ministry on Thursday said if Pelosi proceeded with her travel plan it would have “a severe negative impact” on US-China relations.

Moore, who joined MI6 during the Cold War and long before Britain’s foreign intelligence service was acknowledged to exist in 1994, said he never entertained any misconceptions about the Communist-run country. He identified China as the leading threat to free and democratic societies, supplanting counterterrorism.

“We devote more effort to China than any other single subject,” he said. “It reflects the seriousness of the mission for us.”

The grim assessment of Beijing represents just the latest change in tack in Sino-British relations compared to a decade ago when London actively courted Chinese investment.

‘Surprising shortfalls’ in China military show lack of readiness: US analysts

And Moore’s characterisation echoed sentiments offered earlier this month by Ken McCallum and Christopher Wray, the British and American heads of MI5 and the FBI, respectively. The two senior officials made a rare joint appearance during which they called China “the biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security”.

While China’s strategic intent was not difficult to discern, Moore said, its tactics in implementation and organisation as well as its capabilities continued to be a “black box” for the Western intelligence community.

The MI6 chief has broken tradition in recent months by going public with his agency’s goals and challenges – delivering his first public speech in December and his first interview in Britain in January. In perhaps a sign of his transparent approach, Moore suggested Western leaders find “middle-ground countries” to counter China’s growing sway.

Nato leaders say China is a ‘systemic challenge to Euro-Atlantic security’

Such partners might “not share our political systems, but they are a vital battleground for us as we seek to compete with the Chinese”, he explained, saying Beijing would fill any void in those places.

As for the close ties between Beijing and Moscow, touted by both following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moore described the partnership as “unequal”, with “Moscow very much a junior partner” and the “Chinese very much in the driving seat”.

On Wednesday, Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the US, called Beijing’s stance on the war in Ukraine “fair and objective,” adding that “legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously”.