China’s sway over Russia not enough to impact Ukraine war, analyst says as ‘no-limits ties’ tested
- China is facing growing calls to help end the war on Ukraine before it sparks a broader conflict
- Economic interdependence and shared ideological suspicion of the West seen as driving Beijing’s reluctance to call out Moscow
Xiao’s arguments, published on the China-US Focus website, come at a time when China is struggling with some of the biggest challenges to its foreign policy, as its “no-limits” partnership with Russia – declared when Putin met President Xi Jinping ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics – comes under intense scrutiny.
Twenty days later, Russia launched what it called a “special military operation” in Ukraine, sending tens of thousands of troops into the former Soviet state.
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Xi meets with Putin ahead of Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Still, there have been growing calls for China to use its influence on Russia to end the war, though Chinese leaders, including Xi, have repeatedly said Beijing was willing to work on mediation over the Ukraine war but it had to be done “in its own way”.
Xiao admitted that China’s position on the Ukraine war could hardly satisfy everyone, but argued that its influence on Moscow’s decisions was not as big as many supposed.
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Russia, scarred by the legacy of the Cold War which undercut its great power status, and driven by a desire to be the leader of the Eurasian continent, has a “very strong motivation” to develop its relationship with China, Xiao said.
To that end, Moscow has “steered [ties] in a direction consistent with its own strategic interests”, he explained. “From the perspective of China-Russia relations alone, [their] comprehensive strategic partnership would not be able to restrict Russian adventurism.”
Moreover, the two countries’ “mutual interdependence” on the economic and trade fronts means these could “hardly become a diplomatic tool for bargaining with Russia”.
“China is Russia’s largest trading partner and Russia is China’s largest source of energy imports, and economic and trade cooperation is vital to the stable development of their respective economies,” he wrote in his article published on Tuesday.
“In particular, China’s economic development is under unprecedented downward pressure and the stability of its energy supply is of paramount importance to China.”
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China’s delicate position on Russia-Ukraine crisis and its opposition to Western sanctions
China’s position has also been shaped by its perceived ideological differences with the West, Xiao noted.
“The more the US and its Western allies emphasise the ‘Chinese threat’ doctrine, the less likely it would be for China to align itself with the US and European countries in specific actions [against Russia],” he wrote.
“What is certain is that, without a major turnaround in China’s relations with the US and its Western allies, the US and European countries will be less and less willing to maintain a partnership of cooperation with China.”
US studies show China, Russia convergence on Ukraine messaging
As the war in Ukraine dragged on, China has shown greater awareness of how its position on the conflict may hurt relations with other European countries, which have long been suspicious of Beijing’s ties with Moscow.
