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Increased US activity in South China Sea raises risk of conflict, Chinese researchers warn

  • Study by a Beijing think tank says the US has almost doubled the number of exercises involving carrier groups and stepped up other activities
  • Many of the drills, including dozens with US allies, are clearly aimed at China, the report says

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A helicopter takes off from the USS Wasp during a recent exercise in the South China Sea with the Philippine navy. Photo: AFP
The risk of military conflict in the South China Sea is rising after the United States significantly intensified operations over the past year, a Chinese think tank has warned.
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In 2021, US amphibious landing and carrier strike groups conducted 12 exercises in the South China Sea, almost double the previous year’s total, on top of at least 22 sorties by strategic bombers and 11 transits by nuclear submarines, according to an “incomplete report” on US military activities in the disputed waters.

The study by the Beijing-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, which tracks open source material about operations, said there had been 1,200 reconnaissance flights, while spy ships operated in the waters for a total of 419 sea days.

It also said there had been record levels of spy plane activity – with 94 sorties in November, including 10 in one day – and one plane had come within 15.9 nautical miles (29km) of China’s airspace.

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The report said there had been at least 95 US military drills in the South China Sea, including 81 with other countries.

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Among them there was the largest military exercise in four decades – the “Large Scale Exercise 21” involving 25,000 personnel operating across Europe and the Indo-Pacific in which Australia, Britain and Japan were also involved.

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