Why China won’t get dragged into Russia’s war on Ukraine
- The US has warned Beijing of the ‘costs’ of siding with Moscow, with which it recently pledged a ‘no-limits’ friendship
- It would be a mistake to overstate the strength of those ties, as China would be wary of potential global blowback, say observers
This comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced concerns that Beijing might help Moscow with military equipment as the Russian invasion of Ukraine entered its fourth week.
However, analysts both in China and the US think Beijing is unlikely to come to the aid of Moscow, given that such an act would plunge the country – which prioritises economic development over other issues- in the middle of what could become a global crisis.
“On the world stage, China appears to be the only friend that Russia has left. But it would be a mistake to overstate the strength of such seeming Sino-Russian friendship,” Allen Carlson, associate professor at Cornell University’s department of government, said.
“President Xi Jinping is highly unlikely to allow China to get dragged into the conflict through providing direct military support to Russia.”
“The issue that most matters in the conflict for Beijing is not ending the war or bolstering friendships but protecting China’s own interests. So far, it appears that Xi has not yet come to a conclusion as to what those are,” Carlson said.
