bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

articlePageQuery

filter

article

articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle

articleListArticle

articleSeoArticle

helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle

hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

hooksContentInterestArticle

articleLinkingDataContent

articleSchemaContent

liveArticle

advertZone

sentiment

contentLock

topics

types

sections

moreOnThisArticles

urlAlias

commentCount

authorLocations

authors

paywallTypes

corrections

sponsorType

displaySlideShow

multimediaEmbed

printHeadline

seriesContainer

socialHeadline

headline

flag

firstTopic

glossary

flattenTypeIds

publishedDate

additionalInfoBoxes

images

image

relatedLinks

relatedNewsletters

__typename

createdDate

sponsor

factSheets

seriesReverseOrder

series

disableOffPlatformContent

published

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

body

keywords

copyrighted

customTimezone

liveContents

Shi Jiangtao

History is often subjective and biased because it largely depends on interpreting the past through the eyes of the present.
But there are times when windows of opportunity do really seem to have been missed.
A case in point is the 2012 Scarborough Shoal row between China and the Philippines, which prompted Manila to internationalise the South China Sea dispute by taking China to court in The Hague, a case it won five years ago last week.
What started as a fishing dispute in the contested waters, known as Huangyan Island in China and the Panatag Shoal in the Philippines, spiralled into a tense stand-off that ended when Manila withdrew its ships two months later.
South China Sea: US-Philippines treaty covers Chinese attack, Blinken says
Over the years, there have been repeated attempts to decipher what exactly happened behind the scenes, especially the role the United States played in the debacle and whether there was an agreement for mutual withdrawal from the shoal.
Manila says there was a deal brokered by the administration of then US president Barack Obama – an agreement that Manila accuses Beijing of reneging on.
Beijing, however, has dismissed the deal as a rumour and blamed Manila for what it says are provocations, including the filing of the arbitration case against China.
One version of the story that has been widely accepted in Southeast Asia is that Obama’s top Asia aide Kurt Campbell helped broker the deal during a meeting with China’s then deputy foreign minister Fu Ying in a hotel in southern Virginia.
According to the Financial Times which broke the news on the alleged agreement in 2014, unnamed US officials insisted “there was a clear understanding at the 2012 meeting that the Chinese would take the idea of a mutual withdrawal from Scarborough Shoal back to senior leaders in Beijing”.
Philippines has a secret weapon in its South China Sea tussle with Beijing: the female voice
However, Fu indicated in a book published early this year that there was no agreement, only talks for one, and the alleged verbal deal was just a misunderstanding. Many in the West have cited the incident as a US foreign policy disaster and blamed the Obama administration for its soft pedalling on China in the South China Sea.
In the most detailed response to those claims so far, Fu confirmed that Campbell contacted her twice during the stand-off to discuss the Scarborough situation, including paying a visit to her when she attended an international conference in Virginia on June 1, 2012.
“He was a bit emotional when raising the Huangyan incident,” she said, noting that the US diplomat was biased against China in accusing Beijing of bullying its smaller neighbours.
But Campbell has specifically denied any US involvement in the stand-off and said repeatedly that the US did not want to mediate in the maritime dispute – an assurance that appeared to be aimed at easing China’s concerns about external interference.


“Campbell accepted my view that the withdrawal of Philippine vessels would solve the problem, but he nonetheless expressed hopes repeatedly that the Chinese vessels should be withdrawn,” Fu said. “I was not authorised to make any promise.”
But it remains unclear why Beijing refused to accept the appeal by Campbell and Manila to withdraw its ships from the shoal, which has since been under Chinese control.
A Chinese withdrawal could have changed history and even avoided the 2016 landmark ruling favouring the Philippines.
And there appears to have been time to have done so. According to Philippine media reports in May, it was not until July 2012 that Manila made a final decision to internationalise the maritime dispute with Beijing.


South China Sea: Philippines warns Beijing ‘all options on the table’ after coastguard patrol

Manila and Beijing can still choose cooperation over conflict

Philippines starts Spratly Islands upgrades after months of tension with China

How the Philippines is managing a cold war abroad – and at home

China-Philippines relations

China, the Philippines and a missed opportunity in the South China Sea

The Scarborough Shoal row escalated into a broader international dispute in 2012. Photo: Reuters

South China Sea code of conduct talks ‘may end in stalemate’ as tensions rise

A Philippine coastguard patrol boat passes Chinese vessels at Whitsun Reef in the Spratlys in April. Manila is among those who have been more vocal in criticising Beijing over the South China Sea. Photo: EPA-EFE

China hits back after Canada wades into Hague South China Sea row

China is warning Canada their relationship could be damaged further after Ottawa told Beijing its actions in the East and South China Seas are destabilising. Photo: AFP

Leave or bear consequences, China warns US destroyer near disputed South China Sea islands

The Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command says it has warned the USS Benfold after it was seen near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.

South China Sea: US-Philippines treaty covers Chinese attack, Blinken says

The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier conducts regular ‘freedom of navigation’ exercises in the South China Sea. Photo: Handout

News

China

Diplomacy


The Scarborough Shoal row between Beijing and Manila spilled out into a broader international dispute nearly a decade ago
But there were attempts to prevent that from happening



The Scarborough Shoal row between Beijing and Manila spilled out into a broader international dispute nearly a decade ago – but there were efforts to try to stop that from happening.


US-China relations

South China Sea

South China Sea: Hague case

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

As I see it

As I see it | China, the Philippines and a missed opportunity in the South China Sea

The Scarborough Shoal row between Beijing and Manila spilled out into a broader international dispute nearly a decade ago But there were attempts to prevent that from happening

The Scarborough Shoal row between Beijing and Manila spilled out into a broader international dispute nearly a decade ago

But there were attempts to prevent that from happening