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As I See It | China-India border dispute: history shows solution may lie with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi

  • Neither side is likely to make territorial concessions in the stand-off over their Himalayan border
  • But Beijing and New Delhi have been here before, and it may require the top leaders to act, as was the case in 1987 and 2017

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may hold the key to moving forward from their countries’ border dispute. Photo: AFP
There is a curious recurring cycle of tension and detente in the complicated relations between China and India regarding their Himalayan border. The cycle has occurred several times since 1962’s border war, especially during confrontations in 1987 and 2017, when tensions risked spiralling into a military conflict. They both preceded turning points and bore similarities to the current Ladakh stand-off, which is entering its ninth month.
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The 1987 stare-down in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang district, which China claims as part of Tibet, was the biggest military face-off since 1962. The world’s two most populous nations almost went to war over a row about infrastructure building after diplomatic and military talks failed to calm matters. It wasn’t until the top leaders intervened, after nearly a year, that both sides agreed to step back.

It then took years to complete disengagement and restore the status quo in the mid-1990s.

During his subsequent ice-breaking trip to China in 1988, former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi changed India’s decades-old stance of linking the border with overall ties. It ushered in more than a decade of peace along the unmarked frontier.

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Who has the upper hand in the India-China border dispute?

Who has the upper hand in the India-China border dispute?
Then came the 73-day Doklam face-off in 2017, resolved largely by intervention by the political leadership. Border disputes again gave way to diplomatic pragmatism and geopolitical realism as leaders Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi met days after a de-escalation agreement was announced.
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