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Taiwan
ChinaDiplomacy

US-China relations: Biden expected to keep Taiwan card in play against Beijing

  • Observers say fewer drastic moves likely from Washington but confrontation and risks of military conflict will continue
  • Bipartisan Congressional support for Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy means no significant change in policy is predicted

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US president-elect Joe Biden has promised to rebuild Washington’s relations with its closest partners in the Pacific. Photo: EPA-EFE
Minnie Chan
Confrontation and the risk of military conflict over Taiwan between Beijing and Washington look set to continue under a Joe Biden administration, with military and diplomatic observers predicting no let-up to US sales of advanced weaponry to the self-ruled island.
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Experts pointed to bipartisan support in the US Congress for President Donald Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy – widely seen as targeting Beijing – which they said indicated key Washington policies of a strategic global retrenchment and more investment in the Pacific to counteract a rising China were likely to continue.

But president-elect Biden is expected to take a less openly confrontational approach, according to Shi Yinhong, a senior adviser to China’s cabinet-level State Council. “Unlike Trump’s rude and fierce style, Biden would be more moderate and stable when dealing with Beijing,” he said.

“But the new administration will use salami tactics to help Taiwan strengthen its defensive capability, instead of large packages of arms deals and other drastic moves to infuriate Beijing.”

Despite concerns in both Washington and Beijing about the possibility of a major conflict between the two powers – and continuing dialogue to keep military-to-military relations stable – the bipartisan coalition in the US against China meant the risks of a misstep in the Taiwan Strait amid ongoing tensions would continue to exist, Shi said.
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“Biden will keep playing the Taiwan card, like Trump, because it is always the most effective measure to hit China hard. Beijing’s hardline insistence that the Taiwan issue is a ‘bottom line’ means military confrontations between the PLA and the US military in the Taiwan Strait will become a constant reality in the future,” he said.

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