Is Donald Trump’s threat to quit Japan defence pact just a negotiating tactic?
- Security analysts sceptical that US president would really pull plug on long-standing alliance and suggest it may be a ploy to extract concessions from Tokyo
- Freeing Japan from constraints imposed after World War II risks alarming China and triggering arms race in region
They also warned that if Japan was freed from the restrictions imposed by the post-World War II alliance, it would build up its military – possibly acquiring nuclear weapons – which would unsettle China and trigger an “unrestricted” arms race in the region.
The US president is expected to arrive in Osaka on Thursday ahead of the G20 summit, where he is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Saturday for much-anticipated trade talks.
However, Trump will also want similar talks with Japan as he pushes for a deal aimed at resolving a trade deficit that the United States says has reached US$67.6 billion.
“Trump will not pull out of the defence treaty which has played an essential role in the United States’ global strategy,” said Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military analyst. “Trump just wants to push for more trade concessions from Japan.”
Song said that Trump also wanted Japan to increase its contribution towards the costs of stationing American troops in the country by half.
The 1951 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security grants the US the right to occupy military bases on the archipelago in exchange for a pledge by Washington to defend Japan in the event of an attack.
About 54,000 American troops are stationed in the country across 85 facilities, according to the US Congressional Research Service.
On Tuesday Bloomberg cited three unnamed sources as saying that Trump had privately discussed ending the pact – a claim the Japanese and White House both denied.
But Song also argued: “It’s Japan that wants to abolish the defence treaty more and it’s the US that has restricted Japan’s ability to develop its own military capabilities.”
China ‘wants security relationship with Japan’ as it looks for friends
“If the US did withdraw from the treaty, Japan would have no limits on its military build-up,” Song added. “That would pose a real threat to China.”
During his visit last month, Trump confirmed that Japan had been given the go-ahead to buy 105 US-made F-35 Lightning jets, which would give it the largest F-35 fleet of any US ally.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has previously suggested that Japan’s constitution, brought in after its defeat in World War II, should be revised to remove a clause limiting its armed forces to a purely defensive role.
Collin Koh, a military specialist at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, also expressed doubts that the US would pull out of the alliance, saying such a move risked undermining America’s military presence in the region.
He warned that such a step could not only see troops being withdrawn from Japan but also the protection of the US nuclear deterrent.
“[That] could lead to Japan rethinking rearmament, and possibly interest it in acquiring nuclear weapons,” Koh said.
“That could set off a potential chain reaction in the region, such as South Korea acquiring its own nuclear arms, North Korea and China bulking up their existing arsenals, and Taiwan possibly joining the fray.
“It will have the end effect of destabilising the region … I believe China might be more unsettled by such a prospect.”
