Is Xi Jinping’s Taiwan reunification push hastening a US-China clash?

Beijing’s renewed push for reunification with Taiwan has exposed the fragility of the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait – a relationship increasingly in question with China and the United States locked in a superpower rivalry over trade and geopolitical friction.

Government advisers and analysts warn that the deadlocked cross-strait relations are entering a dangerous period, with an expectation of escalating tensions in the months ahead as an increasingly isolated Taipei tilts further towards Washington, seeking a hedge against Beijing’s aggressive pressure campaign.

The self-governed island’s fate – the most disruptive factor in Beijing’s complex relations with Washington – could touch off a chain reaction that exacerbates the strain on bilateral ties, already mired in a protracted trade war and escalating technology race, they say.

In a speech that may have set the tone for Beijing’s Taiwan policy for years to come, President Xi Jinping last week said both sides should begin talks on reunification to end decades of animosity.

Describing the Taiwan question as a historical trauma for the Chinese nation, Xi said the island must be reunited with Beijing under “one country, two systems”, a model applied in Hong Kong and Macau.

Despite his conciliatory overture – coming amid a stalemate that began when Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected as Taiwan’s president in 2016 – Xi insisted that Beijing would not renounce the use of force, which he claimed was aimed at pro-independence forces in Taiwan and the “interference of external forces”, a veiled reference to Washington.