Trending off TikTok? US users going to China’s RedNote face challenges, analysts say

Analysts are predicting that a recent surge of Americans flocking to the Chinese social media platform RedNote – also known as Xiaohongshu – could be short-lived, as users soon find its content regulations differ sharply from those on TikTok US. The sudden migration to RedNote is largely seen as a protest against a US law set to take effect on January 19, banning TikTok stateside unless it is sold to a non-Chinese buyer. A Supreme Court ruling on TikTok’s lawsuit challenging the ban is expected on Wednesday. Some observers believe RedNote’s popularity may fade. It lacks an English-language version or translation features like mainland messaging app WeChat and social media platform Weibo, arguably making long-term engagement difficult. They also expect the incoming Donald Trump administration is likely to face questions about other mainland-based apps owned or operated in China. Paul Triolo of Washington-based global advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group said most Americans going to RedNote “appear to be doing it as a protest” over the impending TikTok ban. While RedNote was the top free-to-use social media app in the US iPhone store over the last 48 hours, the exact number of new users is still unknown, he noted. It “remains unclear how many actually view it as a viable alternative” to TikTok, Triolo said, “given that the company is headquartered in China and is subject to censorship by the Chinese internet control system, which is not the case with TikTok US”. In the event of a TikTok ban, it would be more likely that “US users would migrate to Lemon8” – a social media app like TikTok and also owned by ByteDance – “or to other US platforms such as Instagram”, he added, citing its similarity to Instagram and rising popularity. Since the US Supreme Court last week heard oral arguments in lawsuits brought by TikTok and content creators over the ban, Lemon8 has been the second-most downloaded app after RedNote. But Denis Simon of the Quincy Institute, a Washington-based foreign policy think tank, warned against assuming that RedNote would replace TikTok. He said “if the rules don’t match the TikTok environment, [users] will quickly become disenchanted”. Describing the influx of Americans as “simply a kind of snub of the US government”, Simon believed that “once Chinese legal and regulatory things kick in, it’ll probably put a bit of a damper on the growth trajectory after the short term”. Based in Shanghai and launched in 2013, RedNote has seen a surge of American users describing themselves as “TikTok refugees”. TikTok boasts more than 170 million users in the US, while RedNote had over 300 million users in China as of December 2023. RedNote did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether it was looking to revise its content regulation policy for American users or would introduce English translation features. Simon stated that a lack of English-language support on RedNote’s app for non-Chinese speaking countries would likely leave such users frustrated. It might consider creating one version for the mainland and another for foreigners, he added. RedNote was “very nervous” about the sudden influx of Americans, Simon continued, despite it being an opportunity to grow beyond China. “They’re probably sitting in China right now wondering, ‘what is the Chinese government impact going to be on their trajectory?’” he said, noting that RedNote was “very much operating within the parameters” of China’s internet controls. Meanwhile, many mainland users in recent days have posted videos for new American users, encouraging them to stay with the platform long term and offering tips on how to make the most of it. “It’s not always easy. We come from different places, different cultures and, yeah, there are policy issues too, but that’s exactly what makes it so exciting,” said Abe, a China-based RedNote user, in a video posted on Monday. “I really, really hope you will stay,” he added. Another China-based user, who goes by the name ‘roxycat’ and has more than 300,000 followers on RedNote, addressed those coming from TikTok in another video. “Don’t say any s*** about our country,” the user urged. “It’s the key to respect. Hey, if you want to talk about yours, it’s OK. You’re already refugees now.” It remained to be seen how mainland officials might adjust censorship priorities if a popular app like RedNote took on a significant number of US-based users or how Washington would respond to a stateside embrace of Chinese apps, analysts said. Simon anticipated that mainland officials would have to make “some accommodation if it really wants this to happen in a way that is pronounced and substantial in any way”. Authorities could “seize the day” by advocating for a free flow of information as the US looked poised to ban TikTok, he added. As for the US government, Triolo said, the law banning TikTok has “opened a massive Pandora’s box”, raising issues that could apply to other apps. Looking ahead as the Trump administration prepared to take office, he believed the president-elect’s “opposition to the ban and desire to seek a solution that preserves TikTok’s US operations” made it unlikely that the next White House would “prioritise banning Chinese apps” in America.

Trending off TikTok? US users going to China’s RedNote face challenges, analysts say

Different content regulations and lack of English support could mean short-lived American-fuelled growth for suddenly popular alternative platform