Trump tariffs will probably be 20% on most Chinese imports, not 60%: Goldman Sachs
Despite US president-elect’s vow of high duties across the board, firm’s chief economist forecasts only key goods will face 60% rate
Despite campaigning on a vow to impose 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports, US president-elect Donald Trump will probably seek an average of 20 per cent tariffs on most of those, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs said on Thursday.
Speaking at the Atlantic Council in Washington, Jan Hatzius of the investment banking giant added that levies might rise to 60 per cent on a limited number of key capital goods, like solar panels, steel and aluminium.
Hatzius noted that China would have a wide range of responses available, should the world’s two largest economies intensify their trade war during Trump’s second administration.
Trump, who is to take office on January 20, had also threatened tariffs of 100 to 200 per cent on Chinese-made electric vehicles, a measure he said could return jobs and manufacturing back to America.
But Hatzius predicted “a modestly benign outcome, with increases in US tariff rates on China averaging about 20 percentage points – as much as 60 percentage points in some areas, but not 60 percentage points across the board”.
“That would be a very inflationary outcome,” Hatzius said.
