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Coronavirus pandemic
China

China coronavirus outbreak could be 10 times worse than Sars, expert says

  • Authorities in Wuhan took too long to impose travel ban so ‘golden time’ to contain spread of disease has passed, virologist Guan Yi says
  • Vital evidence that could have been used to identify source of infection also lost when seafood market in Wuhan was washed clean, he says

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A Chinese virologist has said the new coronavirus outbreak could be 10 times as bad as Sars. Photo: EPA-EFE
Liu Zhen
A leading Chinese virology expert has warned that the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic could be 10 times as bad as the Sars outbreak that killed almost 800 people around the world in 2002-03.

Guan Yi, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Hong Kong University, said in an interview with Caixin magazine on Thursday that after a brief visit to the central China city on Tuesday and Wednesday, he “chose to become a deserter” and left.

“My conservative estimate is that this epidemic could end up at least 10 times the scale of Sars [severe acute respiratory disease],” he said.

During the Sars outbreak, which was also caused by a coronavirus, 8,437 people fell ill around the world and 813 died, according to figures from the World Health Organisation (WHO).

In mainland China there were 5,327 cases and 348 deaths, and in Hong Kong, 1,755 cases and 298 deaths.

As of midnight Thursday, there had been 17 deaths and 583 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus – named 2019-nCoV by the WHO. Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, has accounted for all of the fatalities and 444 cases of the 571 confirmed cases in mainland China.

The 12 other cases were reported in Thailand, South Korea, Japan, the United States, and the cities of Hong Kong and Macau.

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