China could feel swine fever blow for next decade, Cargill says
- Official reports of 24 per cent decline for nation’s hog herd are ‘conservative’, says one of world’s largest agricultural commodity traders
- Drop of 45 per cent in production expected this year, according to managing director for Cargill’s premix and nutrition business in China
It could be as long as a decade before China recovers from its outbreak of African swine fever, the deadly pig disease that is decimating hog herds in the world’s largest pork consumer.
That is according to Cargill, one of the world’s largest agricultural commodity traders. The virus, which kills most infected pigs within 10 days, has already spread to most Chinese provinces.
Official reports of a 24 per cent decline for the nation’s herd are “conservative”. said John Fering, managing director for Cargill’s premix and nutrition business in the Asian nation.
Many in the market are already expecting a drop of 45 per cent in production for this year, he said.
“This is not a short-term event,” Fering said by phone. “This is going to take several years, if not a decade, to fully achieve structural recovery.’’
