How a modern-day Korean war may unfold – if Kim Jong-un follows through on his threats

The 40-year-old dictator began 2024 by scrapping North Korea’s goal of peaceful unification and declaring he had the right to ‘annihilate’ South Korea

Read on for a closer look at the potential conflict scenarios, after two prominent analysts warn Kim ‘has made a strategic decision to go to war’

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North Korean tank crews and helicopters conduct joint drills in an undisclosed location last month in this picture released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. Photo: KCNA via KNS / AFP

Published: 11:04am, 3 Apr 2024Updated: 2:49pm, 3 Apr 2024

After decades of empty threats, much of the world tunes out when North Korea vows to unleash destruction on its enemies. But in the past few months, some prominent analysts began warning that Kim Jong-un may actually be serious about preparing for war.

Now in his 13th year running North Korea, Kim is more aggressively testing the boundaries of what his adversaries will tolerate. Backed by rapid progress in his nation’s nuclear capabilities and missile programme, the 40-year-old dictator began 2024 by removing the goal of peaceful unification from North Korea’s constitution and declaring he had the right to “annihilate” South Korea.

While such bellicose rhetoric would normally be dismissed – Kim could just be posturing ahead of South Korean elections on April 10 – two prominent analysts set off a round of discussion among North Korea watchers with an article suggesting that this time Kim isn’t bluffing.

“Like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war,” former CIA officer Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker wrote in early 2024 on the website 38 North, which focuses on North Korea. They didn’t forecast how soon that could take place.

Carlin and Hecker’s views are not universal: most analysts argue that any full-scale attack would be a move of desperation or suicide, inviting a response from South Korea and the US that would end the Kim family’s nearly eight-decade-long rule. But with multiple conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, it’s just the kind of war the world could stumble into – with potentially devastating consequences for not just the Korean peninsula, but the global economy and, particularly, the chip supply chain.

Seoul’s response to all the speculation has been blunt: “The Kim regime will meet its end” if it pursues all-out war, South Korea’s Defence Ministry said in January.

Here are the potential scenarios if Kim Jong-un decides to make good on his threats to attack South Korea.

Planes of the US Far East Air Forces rain tonnes of high-demolition bombs on North Korea in January 1951. Many of North Korea’s major cities were obliterated in the original Korean war. Photo: US Air Force via AP