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Associated Press

North Korea’s collapse has been predicted – wrongly – for decades.
Some said it would happen after fighting ended in the Korean war in 1953. Others thought it would be during a 1990s famine or when national founder Kim Il-sung died in 1994. And when the death of his son, Kim Jong-il, thrust a little-known 20-something into power in 2011, some felt the end was near.
It’s no surprise then that recent rumours that leader Kim Jong-un is seriously ill have led to similar hand-wringing.
South Korea believes Kim is alive and in control, and most analysts agree that even if he weren’t, Kim’s powerful sister, Kim Yo-jong, would likely take control, possibly with the help of select officials.
Many experts say North Korea would weather the transition just as it has every other upheaval.
But what if it did not? Here’s a look at how other nations might deal with a catastrophe in North Korea.


The United States
If the government in Pyongyang should collapse, a US-South Korean contingency plan called OPLAN 5029 would reportedly come into play.
The plan is meant to secure the border and North Korea’s nuclear weapons if the government cannot function or if control of those weapons becomes uncertain.
“The million-dollar question is: When do you invoke the OPLAN and what indicators do you rely on to do so? Because one country’s ‘securing the country’ operation can look to the other nation like an ‘invasion plan.’ And then all hell can break loose,” said Vipin Narang, a North Korea nuclear specialist at MIT.
The biggest US worry is North Korea’s nuclear stockpile being used, stolen or sold.
Kim’s train spotted again as speculation continues over his absence
“If the US does not have plans to go in and secure and retrieve North Korean nukes – to the extent we know where they are – then we are not doing our job,” said Ralph Cossa, president emeritus of the Pacific Forum think tank in Hawaii.
“Beyond that, it makes little sense for the US and/or South Korea to get involved in internal North Korean power struggles.”
The danger of a US misstep during a collapse would be huge. Among the potential problems would be coordinating with South Korea’s military at a time when Chinese troops would also likely be operating in the North and funding immense military and humanitarian efforts.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said recently, when asked about Kim’s health, that Washington will continue to pursue complete denuclearisation, “regardless of what transpires inside of North Korea with respect to their leadership.”

China
China is the North’s main source of aid and diplomatic backing and considers political stability in its impoverished neighbour crucial to its own security.
Although China has agreed to United Nations sanctions over the North’s weapons programmes, it’s wary of anything that would collapse the economy or unseat the ruling party and potentially unleash conflict on its border and a flood of refugees crossing over.
China in recent years has reinforced its border defences with the North. But many people living on the Chinese side of the border are ethnically Korean, increasing fears of instability or even territorial loss if the border was opened.
China’s biggest concern, however, is thought to be the prospect of American and South Korean troops operating along its border, a worry that prompted China to enter the Korean war 70 years ago.
A change in leadership in North Korea, however, would be unlikely to bring about major changes to the relationship, said Lu Chao, a professor at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences in China.
Kim Jong-un isn’t the first one of North Korea’s leaders to ‘disappear’
South Korea
Aside from joint plans with the US military, internal South Korean preparations for a North Korean collapse reportedly deal with how to shelter an influx of refugees and how to set up an emergency administrative headquarters in the North.
According to leaked US diplomatic cables, then-senior South Korean presidential adviser Kim Sung-hwan told a top US diplomat in 2009 that South Korea’s constitution states that North Korea is part of South Korean territory and that “some scholars believe that if the North collapses, some type of ‘interim entity’ will have to be created to provide local governing and control travel of North Korean citizens.”
When asked recently about contingency plans, South Korea’s Unification Ministry said it “prepares for all possibilities.”
One big problem is that unlike China, South Korea cannot mobilise the large number of soldiers needed to stabilise North Korea.
“If the North Korean regime is on the brink of collapse, China will most likely send troops to its ally and establish a pro-Beijing regime in the country,” South Korea’s JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said in a recent editorial. “Seoul must do its best to minimise China’s intervention in the North based on the solid alliance with” Washington.


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Kim Jong-un

What would the US and China do if chaos erupts in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: AP

FILE - In this Sept. 19, 2018, file photo, Kim Yo Jong, right, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, helps Kim sign joint statement following the summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the Paekhwawon State Guesthouse in Pyongyang, North Korea. Kim's prolonged public absence has led to rumors of ill health and worries about how it could influence the future of what one analyst calls Northeast Asia's "Achilles' heel," a reference to the North's belligerence and unpredictable nature. (Pyongyang Press Corps Pool via AP, File)

Could Kim Jong-un’s uncle, who spent decades abroad, become the next North Korean leader?

Kim Pyong-il, a younger brother of Kim Jong-il and uncle of current North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is seen in the Czech Republic in 2015. He returned to Pyongyang last year and his name is being mentioned as a possible successor. Photo: AP

People wearing face masks cross a road in front of the Ryugyong Hotel in Pyongyang, North Korea Tuesday, April 28, 2020. (AP Photo/Cha Song Ho)

FILE PHOTO: South Korean people watch a TV broadcasting a news report on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Seoul, South Korea, April 21, 2020. REUTERS/Heo Ran/File Photo

Donald Trump wishes Kim Jong-un well amid reports on North Korean leader’s health

US President Donald Trump (right) meets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at Sentosa Island in Singapore in June 2018. Photo: dpa

FILE- In this June 30, 2019 file photo, President Donald Trump, left, meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the North Korean side of the border at the village of Panmunjom in Demilitarized Zone. North Korea on Sunday dismissed as “ungrounded” President Donald Trump’s comment that he recently received “a nice note” from the North's leader, Kim Jong Un. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Is Kim Jong-un ill? Reports shine light on North Korea’s rumour mill

Rumours are swirling over the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: AP

In a photo taken on April 9, 2017 a woman uses a mobile phone as a taxi passes the portraits of late North Korean leaders Kim Il-Sung (L) and Kim Jong-il (R) in Pyongyang. / AFP PHOTO / Ed JONES

FILE - In this March 17, 2020, file photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, delivers a speech during the ground-breaking ceremony of a general hospital in Pyongyang, North Korea. North Korea says it has zero coronavirus infections, but experts doubt it and say it's likely the virus has already spread in the country. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

Is North Korea really coronavirus-free? Defectors, experts question zero Covid-19 claim

A nurse explains details about the virus at the Phyongchon District People’s Hospital in Pyongyang. Photo: AP

In this April 2, 2020, photo, Choi Jung Hun, a former North Korean doctor who came to South Korea in 2012, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Seoul, South Korea. North Korea says it has zero coronavirus infections, but experts doubt it and say it’s likely the virus has already spread in the country. Choi and other defectors told that workers didn’t have test kits when they dealt with past outbreaks and weren’t even asked to confirm or submit cases to the central government. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

Kim Jong-un inspects a military drill in North Korea. Photo: AP

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East Asia


Experts say Pyongyang would weather the transition just as it has every other upheaval
But what if it did not? Here’s a look at how other nations might deal with a catastrophe in North Korea



Here’s a look at how other nations might deal with a catastrophe in North Korea.


What would the US and China do if chaos erupts in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea?

Experts say Pyongyang would weather the transition just as it has every other upheaval But what if it did not? Here’s a look at how other nations might deal with a catastrophe in North Korea

Experts say Pyongyang would weather the transition just as it has every other upheaval

But what if it did not? Here’s a look at how other nations might deal with a catastrophe in North Korea