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Analysis | Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s grasp on power weakened after Tokyo election – but will rivals emerge to challenge him?

A new party could set up Yuriko Koike for a run at the nation’s top job, but her allies have said she’s unlikely to quit as governor to return to parliament before the 2020 Tokyo Olympics

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Photo: AFP

A stunning defeat for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party at the hands of a novice political group in the capital has revealed the fragility of his support and shown that voters can desert him – if there is a credible alternative.

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Abe surged back to power in 2012, pledging to revive the stale economy and bolster defence. He has led his ruling bloc to three more landslide victories in national polls since then.

But those victories were less robust than met the eye, since record or near-record low voter turnout allowed Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to rack up seats with support from a quarter or less of eligible voters.

On Sunday, the party got a chilling glimpse of just how vulnerable it could be if a viable opposition force emerges to attract unhappy voters. That reminder could encourage rivals in Abe’s own party to challenge him in a leadership race next year if his slumping poll ratings fail to recover.

Popular Governor Yuriko Koike’s novice Tokyo Citizens First party and its allies – including the LDP’s national-level coalition partner – won a landslide victory, taking 79 seats in Sunday’s election for the 127-member Tokyo Metropolitan assembly. The LDP got 23 seats, its worst ever result in the capital and less than half its pre-vote presence.
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Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike. Photo: AP
Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike. Photo: AP
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