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Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Governor of Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region Dmitry Artyukhov at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2022. Photo: Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images/TNS

G20’s Putin problem: how to react if Russian president attends Bali Summit; Hillary Clinton says boycott event

  • Putin’s attendance could mean some leaders stay away and instead send lower-level delegations, or officials may conduct proceedings virtually
  • Russia booted from G8 after annexing Crimea, but G20 eviction would need consensus from countries like China, which has not condemned Moscow’s action on Ukraine
Ukraine war

Russia’s war in Ukraine is looming large over a Group of 20 summit that is still seven months off, with officials frantically preparing in case President Vladimir Putin decides to turn up.

The range of possible scenarios includes some leaders staying away, sending lower-level delegations or only dialling in from afar, according to people familiar with the discussions among member countries. The meeting could very well end without a formal communique for the first time.

This year’s G20, which includes conversations among chief negotiators, a slate of ministerial meetings and then the summit in November, is being hosted by Indonesia, which finds itself in a very uncomfortable position given the conflict in Ukraine.

Debate on Indonesia’s G20 guest list hits peak with China, Australia remarks

Russia was booted from the then Group of Eight after its annexation of Crimea in 2014, but evicting it from the G20 is a far more complicated prospect, with nations like China likely balking at a move that requires consensus to enact.

The G20 has faced difficulty before, including during Donald Trump’s tenure when he lambasted other countries for their trade policies and questioned global institutions in general. It has survived in part out of the belief that sticking together can help confront global challenges such as climate change, poverty, economic downturns and, most recently, the pandemic. This is set to be its biggest test yet.

Multiple officials said kicking Russia out of the group that was formed in 1999 to deal with a world economic crisis is not an option, even though President Joe Biden has called for it. That leaves Indonesia working out how to manage the summit on the tropical island of Bali if Putin makes an appearance.

Officials prepare the exhibition stands at the venue for the G20 finance ministers and central governors meeting in Jakarta in February. The 17th G20 summit is expected to take place in Bali, Indonesia in November. Photo: POOL/AFP

US officials have privately debated whether Biden should skip the event if Putin takes part, according to a person familiar with the discussions. But at this point Biden would likely still attend in person, two people familiar with the planning said.

Officials, including those from the US, have worked on persuading Indonesia to exclude Putin, or at least to condemn his actions in Ukraine, one of the people said. White House spokespeople did not immediately comment.

A spokeswoman for the US National Security Council said Tuesday that the Biden administration has discussed the situation with Indonesia and other G20 countries, and would look closer at whether to participate or not as the summit approaches.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin (C) and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Salman bin Albdulaziz Al Saud (R) attend a plenary session at the G20 summit in Brisbane, Australia in November 2014. Photo: EPA/Alexei Druzhinin/Ria Novosti

The Russian president did attend the G20 summit in Australia in late 2014 but was largely shunned by other leaders and left early after a barrage of criticism over Crimea. In one famous moment Putin approached then-Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper for a handshake only to be told: “I guess I’ll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you: You need to get out of Ukraine.”

Indonesia said in late March it planned to invite Putin and all other leaders, seeking to “remain impartial” as hosts. A person familiar with the matter said the Russian president had received his invitation but had not made a decision on attending. The Kremlin did not respond to several requests for comment.

Asked if Indonesia was preparing for other scenarios, Vice Foreign Minister Mahendra Siregar replied by text message that “I can’t answer hypothetical questions.”

Chinese foreign minister says ‘no one has the power to divide the G20’

“Indonesia prepares the best as G20 presidency, while monitoring closely and actively seeking solutions on Ukraine,” he said. Foreign Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah added that Jakarta was consulting G20 members but it was too early to comment on procedural issues including likely scenarios for the summit itself.

Technical work before the summit – on issues such as climate change and the economic recovery from the pandemic – has already been overshadowed by the war, with western diplomats condemning Russia’s action at every preparatory meeting, one of the people said. Officials will continue to call out Russia at upcoming meetings, another person said.

Dealing with the possible presence of Putin in Bali would require more than simply criticising his actions, one of the people said.

It would be especially problematic for Group of Seven nations as they have imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow following the invasion. A number of G7 leaders, including Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have accused Putin of being a war criminal and would find it difficult to be in the same room as him.

The G7 – comprising the US, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Italy and the UK – will at the same time want to be careful to not create north-south divides within the broader G20. The G7 wants to engage more nations in sanctioning Russia’s war, officials said.

China backs Russia to stay in G20 despite war in Ukraine

One option being explored is to include in all official communications a condemnation of the war and references to United Nations principles and international law, such as sovereignty, the people said.

Should that be rejected then it is likely the summit will not have a joint statement, the people added. Kyodo News reported, citing people it did not identify, that G20 finance minsters have decided not to issue a joint statement after their April meeting.

Some of the officials also said that a blanket G-7 boycott of the November summit is seen as risking leaving the stage to Putin.

That raises the possibility, according to one official, that some nations send lower ranking officials instead of prime ministers and presidents. A final decision has yet to be taken, said the people.

Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the G20 should boycott November’s summit in Bali if Russian President Vladimir Putin shows up because of his invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Reuters

Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Sunday that G20 members should hold a boycott if Russia insists on attending future events.

“I would not allow Russia back into the organisations that it has been a part of,” Clinton told Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked if there is world where Russian President Vladimir Putin is let back into world organizations.

“I think there is an upcoming G20 event later in the year,” she added. “I would not permit Russia to attend. And if they insisted on literally showing up, I would hope there would be a significant, if not total, boycott.”

“The only way we’re going to end the bloodshed and the terror we’re seeing unleashed in Ukraine and protect Europe and democracy is to do everything we can to impose even greater costs on Putin,” Clinton said.

Additional reporting from Business Insider

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