But the overall figures mask large downgrades and ongoing struggles for some countries, including the United States, Germany and Japan that are feeling the impact of supply bottlenecks, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said.

“This recovery is really quite unique,” she told AFP on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

Despite a strong return in demand, “the supply side has not been able to come back as quickly,” hampered in part by the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19, which has made workers reluctant to return to their jobs.

Those labour shortages are “feeding into price pressures” in major economies, she said, slowing growth expectations this year.

But Gopinath said she expects energy prices to begin to retreat by the end of the first quarter of 2022.

In low-income developing countries, the outlook “has darkened considerably due to worsening pandemic dynamics,” she said in a blog post on the new forecasts.

The setbacks, which she blamed on the “great vaccine divide,” will impact the restoration of living standards, and a prolonged pandemic downturn “could reduce global [gross domestic product] by a cumulative US$5.3 trillion over the next five years,” she warned.

“The dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries remains a major concern,” Gopinath said.

Advanced economies are expected to regain “pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9 per cent in 2024,” she said.

However, in emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, output “is expected to remain 5.5 per cent below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024”.

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Chinese manufacturing thrown into disarray as country's electricity crisis rolls on

Chinese manufacturing thrown into disarray as country's electricity crisis rolls on

Amid the danger of long-term scarring, “The foremost policy priority is therefore to vaccinate at least 40 per cent of the population in every country by end-2021 and 70 per cent by mid-2022,” she said.

US growth is expected to slow to 5.2 per cent next year, slightly faster than previously expected, but policymakers will face a delicate balancing act amid risks of rising inflation and lagging employment, the fund noted.

Wages also threaten to rise as employers compete for scarce workers, Gopinath noted.

While inflation is expected to return to “more normal levels” by mid-2022 in most countries, it could take longer in the United States, she told reporters.

“There is tremendous uncertainty, we have never seen a recovery of this kind,” she said, noting labour shortages plaguing employers even amid high unemployment, and supply unable to meet demand.

US consumer prices rose 5.3 per cent annually in August, more than double the US Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent goal. Markets on Wednesday will be watching for the government’s September inflation report.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the price increases will be “transitory”.

“But I don’t mean to suggest that these pressures will disappear in the next month or two,” she told CBS News. “This is an unprecedented shock to the global economy.”

However, if higher inflation becomes entrenched, it could force central banks to respond aggressively, and rising interest rates would slow the recovery, the IMF cautioned.