For China’s eager emigrants, the FOMO is real, and a move overseas may be now or never
- Middle-class Chinese with means to move abroad see closing window of opportunity as countries tighten immigration policies, and the race is on as applications surge
For affluent middle-class Chinese, 2024 may be the year they are most inclined to take action on emigration – seeing this as the final call for “the easy train” to a fresh start overseas – as some fear that the immigration outlook abroad could become derailed by factors beyond their control.
And if that doesn’t pan out, he would try to take advantage of an investment programme that would allow him to emigrate to Greece. Either way, his family has its sights set on permanent residency in a developed country.
But immigration policies in many countries and regions that have long been viewed as attractive to Chinese middle-class families are expected to start tightening in the coming year, according to those who specialise in expatriation.
“Various countries’ immigration policies are at a tipping point,” said Crystal Tan, an agent in Guangdong province who helps wealthy Chinese citizens emigrate and buy property overseas. “The timing is right this year, and as the cost is still within their financial capabilities, many middle-class individuals are willing to try.”
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In the past, China’s property-led national development strategy has created huge income and wealth disparities in the country, but the widespread and rapid decline in housing prices and income in China has recently raised risks for the upper-middle-class group’s wealth.
The European Union’s investment residency and citizenship programmes have been offering enticing options for the Chinese, but this year is widely viewed as the last chance for them, as the European Parliament has confirmed the upcoming closure of all home-buying immigration next year.
“Industry peers estimate that, in 2024, up to 2,000 Chinese families will try their luck at Malta’s programme,” Tan said, referring to the island country’s Citizenship by Naturalisation for Exceptional Services by Direct Investment, while noting that another 2,000 families will look to Greece and about 1,000 will go for Portugal.
It usually takes a few months to get a second citizenship, which comes with a price tag of between US$250,000 and US$1 million, according to industry insiders and product packages.
“More than 4,000 Chinese families are expected to flock to apply for the US’ EB-1A [extraordinary ability] and NIW [national interest waiver] visas by this year, as the pass rate is looking to be significantly lower next year, with much stricter scrutiny,” Tan said, explaining how US Citizenship and Immigration Services is expected to propose changes to the processing rules and evidence-submission requirements for those types of visas in August
And industry experts suspect that a potential return to the White House by former president Donald Trump next year could result in even tighter immigration laws.
If I continue to hold on to the properties I currently own, there is a high probability that they will continue to depreciate
Shen said the market price for an EB-1A or NIW visa is about US$60,000, with a US$35,000 refund if the immigrant petition is not approved. “A large number of social media posts are also frantically promoting immigration programmes on popular platforms such as Xiaohongshu,” the doctor observed.
“The cost of the opportunity for my family of three to get a US green card via my speciality is attractive and worthwhile,” Shen said, and “the Greek Golden Visa Program, through a 250,000 euro (US$272,000) real estate investment is, so far, still affordable, compared with Shenzhen’s current property prices.”
Until this year, emigrating was not really on Shen’s radar. But he said his mind changed as he watched people suffer sharp declines in wealth and income – from fellow doctors to bankers and civil servants.
“My daughter needs overseas citizenship and says she wants to stay overseas if the economic and political environment in China changes even more in the future,” he said. “Besides, even if I continue to hold on to the properties I currently own, there is a high probability that they will continue to depreciate over the next year, or in years to come.
“So, selling some of my domestic properties in exchange for an apartment and citizenship in Europe for the family sounds like a better deal than it ever has.”
This is also a time when more young mainland-based talent are seeking employment in Hong Kong, said Sophie Su, a veteran translator who rushed to take advantage of the administrative region’s push to attract immigrants from various groups through talent immigration schemes such as the Top Talent Pass Scheme (TTPS) and the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme (QMAS).
Most successful applicants in these programmes came from mainland China last year, with authorities saying that 95 per cent of the nearly 50,000 TTPS applications were approved by the end of last year.
“I was told by immigration consultants that more than 30,000 people would file their applications later this year,” Su said. “I and many friends in their thirties and forties want to seize this opportunity before the programme caps the limit.”
Su paid 15,000 yuan to her immigration agent to help her apply through the QMAS, but she still worries that her odds of rejection could be high, based solely on her credentials.
“But if I don’t try this year, the bar will definitely be higher next year,” she said, adding that living and working in Hong Kong remains a strong draw for young middle-class Chinese people like herself.
“Children can get a more international education in Hong Kong, and you can invest in gold and foreign currencies more freely in Hong Kong, with higher interest rates than in domestic banks.”
According to the Industry Insights report of the Henley Citizenship Program Index 2024, released by advisory firm Henley & Partners, 2024 is projected to be a record-breaking year, with the biggest millionaire migration in history – projected to be about 128,000.
Affluent middle-class Chinese are keen to obtain a second, premium citizenship, since citizenship is the key status that determines a person’s position in a hierarchical global system, Henley’s report said. However, it is worth noting that mainland China does not recognise dual nationality for any Chinese national.
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Travel freedom has become particularly valuable in today’s globalised world, where the ability to cross international borders plays a key role in determining individuals’ economic opportunities, consumption habits and social status – sometimes even their safety, the report added.
Just over 36 per cent of the surveyed high-net-worth individuals from China said their family members were considering emigrating overseas, according to the 2024 Hurun Chinese Luxury Consumer Survey released by the Hurun Report Research Institute in March. This marked an increase of nearly 6 percentage points from 2023. Singapore, Canada and the United States remained the most favoured immigration destinations among rich Chinese.
Meanwhile, there are concerns that the number of Chinese people who can afford to emigrate could peak this year and diminish from 2025.
“The popular belief in the past was that selling a two-bedroom apartment in Shenzhen or Shanghai would be enough for a middle-class family of three to immigrate overseas. Now it has become increasingly impractical, because we all feel that the momentum of China’s overall wealth growth is waning” said Ken Cai, a private entrepreneur in the Yangtze River Delta who obtained citizenship in Europe through an investment programme.
Cai said urban Chinese citizens have finally accepted that property prices are no longer perpetually rising, and that a dramatic decline in personal wealth can tank the value of housing assets.
“Many of those who had the means and inclination to emigrate last year will most likely not see that as a viable option next year,” he said.
Last month, another wealth report produced by Hurun also showed that, as of January last year, the number of affluent Chinese families had dropped by 0.8 per cent from the previous year. And it showed that the number of high-net-worth families – those with assets worth more than 10 million yuan – had also dropped 1.3 per cent to 2.08 million.
Nearly half of the people polled had pre-tax personal annual income of between 200,000 yuan and 500,000 yuan, and household assets of between 3 million yuan and 10 million yuan. According to Wu’s report, 11.4 per cent of middle-class families reported that their wealth had shrunk by more than 30 per cent last year, with 28.9 per cent mentioning a decrease in wealth ranging from between 10 and 30 per cent. Only 24.8 per cent said their wealth had increased in 2023, compared with 29 per cent a year ago and 55 per cent in 2021, according to the white paper.
As a result, Tan, the Guangdong-based agent, spoke to the urgency of the situation for those looking to move abroad.
“You could say that this year may be the last chance to hop on the easy train for immigration, so everybody is sort of going crazy for fear of missing out,” she said. “The number of inquiries has increased significantly, and clients will have to go all-out.”
