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China’s economy faces ‘high uncertainty’ in 2024 as IMF predicts 4.6% growth, calls for greater data transparency
- International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects China’s economy to grow by 4.6 per cent in 2024, it said as it released a review of its Article IV consultation
- Washington-based institution highlighted ‘significant’ gaps in China’s economic and financial data, underlined by a six-month suspension of its youth unemployment data
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Uncertainty surrounding China’s economy remains high this year, dragged down by the ongoing property market slump, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, while the Washington-based institution also urged Beijing to address gaps in its economic and financial data.
The IMF expects China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4.6 per cent this year, before slowing to 4 per cent in 2025, as a result of ongoing property sector strains, which would further dampen private demand and confidence, and also add to local government budget strains.
“Uncertainty surrounding the outlook is high, particularly given the existing large imbalances and associated vulnerabilities,” the IMF said.
“Staff estimate that, in such an adverse scenario which entails a deeper and more prolonged contraction in the property sector, GDP in 2025 could be 1.8 per cent lower compared to the baseline [of 4 per cent].”
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Last year, China’s economy grew by a higher-than-expected 5.2 per cent, and Beijing is again expected to set a GDP growth target of around 5 per cent for 2024.
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