China trade: prospects under cloud in 2024 despite December uptick as recovery lags, de-risking continues
- Gap between China’s trade with Russia and its trade with the US has narrowed sharply since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022
- Trade barriers and a global recession are set to weigh on China’s exports in 2024, after they fell by 4.6 per cent overall last year
China would be faced with a daunting task to consolidate its trade growth in 2024, analysts said, due to a set of external economic headwinds and domestic growth uncertainties.
Imports also bounced back into growth last month, with a modest rise of 0.2 per cent to US$228.2 billion, although the figure was lower than market expectations amid a fragile recovery of the domestic economy.
After abruptly exiting from three years of coronavirus-related restrictions at the start of 2023, China’s trade experienced a tumultuous recovery last year due to geopolitical tensions, sluggish domestic demand and a global economic slowdown.
The economic downturn in the US would put additional pressure on China’s exports
And the pressure could continue into 2024, analysts said, as the global economy is expected to slow and hamper external demand for Chinese products, while Beijing still needs to sustain robust growth and address a property crisis, deflationary risks and weak market confidence at home.
