In German trade, US may surpass China in 2024 amid geopolitical tensions and weak investments
- Berlin economic report says China’s once ‘huge’ lead waned heavily last year, and the trend looks to intensify as US and Chinese economies head in ‘opposite directions’
- Findings follow survey by German Chamber of Commerce in China showing China’s investment appeal declining among members
China is in a position where the United States could overtake it as Germany’s top trading partner, owing to changing geopolitical situations and a slow recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, according to a German government report.
The report pointed out that the economies of the US and China are currently “developing in practically opposite directions” because there is “no recovery in the Middle Kingdom” but the US is “developing better than expected”.
“If these trends continue in 2024, the US will replace China at the top of the ranking of Germany’s most important foreign trade partners,” said the report released on Saturday by Germany Trade and Invest, the nation’s international economic promotion agency. “Overall, the environment for German importers and exporters will remain tense in 2024.”
The report also said that the real estate crisis, geopolitical tensions in relations with the US and the EU, and weak industrial investments have contributed to this evolving trend.
Based on Germany Trade and Invest calculations, German exports and imports to China totalled around €254 billion (US$275 billion) in 2023.
China “has been the most important trading partner for [Germany] since 2016”, said Katharina Viklenko, the manager for East Asia with Germany Trade and Invest, who authored the report. However, she noted that, “in 2023, imports from China fell by around 19 per cent, and German exports to China fell by around 9 per cent”.
