ExplainerChina consumption: how important is it to the world’s No 2 economy?
- As China’s middle class has expanded over the past two decades, consumption has become a key driver of growth
- Under its ‘dual circulation’ strategy, Beijing wants consumer spending to become more prominent in future
How important is consumption to the Chinese economy?
Consumption was at its peak in 2000, when its annual share of China’s GDP was 63.9 per cent. But that figure gradually decreased over the next decade. In 2010, it began to grow again, but at a rate of less than 1 per cent annually, before reaching 54.3 per cent last year – a similar level with 2005.
In developed economies, consumption as a share of GDP hovers around 70 to 80 per cent.
China’s top leadership sees boosting consumer spending as an economic priority in the five-year plan to 2025, as well as the nation’s long-term vision through 2035. Flooding the economy with monetary and fiscal spending is no longer a favoured growth strategy for the central government.
How has consumption evolved in China?
Over the past two decades, as tens of millions of Chinese have been pulled out of poverty and the middle class has swollen, more people have had disposable incomes to spend.
The average before-tax income of Chinese citizens, measured by gross national income per capita, has grown more than tenfold since 2000. Less than 1 per cent of China’s population belonged to the global middle class in 2002, but by 2018 a quarter of all Chinese did, according to the IZA Institute of Labour Economics.
Expenditure that was once typical of North America and Europe is now common among Chinese households. In particular, more than one-third of cars sold globally in 2020 were bought by Chinese customers. Their spending will more than double in 10 years and focus on services over goods, Morgan Stanley said.