China’s economy undergoing ‘two very different recoveries’, study that counters official data says
- Independent research firm China Beige Book claims its survey shows an alternative narrative to Beijing’s official economic recovery in the wake of the coronavirus
- Survey of 3,300 firms across China shows a disjointed recovery away from the ‘corporate elites’ in the coastal hubs of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong
China has been heralded as the first major economy to recover from the impact of the coronavirus, but that resurgence has been patchy and overhyped, according to the authors of a new study.
A survey of Chinese firms conducted by China Beige Book, an independent analysis firm, showed that for “the corporate elite” – large firms in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong – the economy is accelerating, but that “most firms in most regions are seeing a far more muted recovery”.
Some analysts are forecasting year-on-year growth of more than 5 per cent for the third quarter, but the study suggested a more uneven picture on the ground.
There are two very different Chinese economic recoveries right now. Beijing is lying about at least one of them.
Growth in output and corporate revenues are expected to be weaker between July and September for firms in most regions than they were a year earlier, even if conditions have improved since the second quarter.
