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Coronavirus: China’s economic recovery path uncertain after mixed industrial production, retail sales data

  • April’s figures released on Friday remained mixed, rekindling the debate over the outlook for China’s economic recovery
  • Analysts debate V-shaped, U-shaped L-shaped and W-shaped recoveries for the world’s second largest economy

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Industrial production, a measurement of output in China’s manufacturing, mining and utilities sectors, grew by 3.9 per cent from a year earlier in April, reversing a 1.1 per cent contraction in March. Photo: AP

As China’s economy comes back to life following the coronavirus lockdowns, debate has intensified over how quickly growth will rebound.

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China’s latest economic data for April, including the likes of China’s industrial production and retail sales, released on Friday remained mixed, rekindling the debate over the outlook for the recovery.

The debate is often expressed in terms of the shape of the recovery, with a V-shaped recovery describing an economy that rebounds quickly. A U-shaped recovery is deep and more prolonged, while a L-shaped recovery is slower.

Industrial production, a measurement of output in China’s manufacturing, mining and utilities sectors, grew by 3.9 per cent from a year earlier in April, reversing a 1.1 per cent contraction in March.

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Retail sales, a measure of consumer purchases of goods, fell 7.5 per cent from a year earlier, although this weaker than expected recovery was an improvement on the 15.8 per cent decline in March.

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