Weakest China growth in almost 30 years: analysts ask if Beijing is doing enough to stop slowdown
- Analysts see China economy slowing further in first half before stabilising in second half
- Analysts expect Beijing will need to enact more stimulus to stop economic slowdown
China’s economic growth rate in 2018 slipped to its lowest level in nearly three decades, raising concerns over whether Beijing has done enough to arrest the deepening slowdown, at a time when the external environment is turning hostile and a mountain of debt at home is restricting the scope for additional stimulus.
The official growth rate of 6.6 per cent in 2018 – while a decent figure given the size of China’s economy and in line with the government’s target for growth of “about 6.5 per cent” for the year – was the lowest since a rise 3.9 per cent in 1990, a year when China was sanctioned by western countries over its ruthless crackdown on the pro-democracy movement the previous year.
The fourth quarter growth rate of 6.4 per cent compared to the previous year matched that of the first quarter of 2009, the lowest growth rate since the Chinese government began publishing quarterly growth rates at the beginning of 1992.
The 2009 reading occurred at the beginning of the global financial market crash that sparked recessions throughout the West.
The fourth quarter growth rate was down from 6.5 per cent in the third quarter, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, and matched the median forecast of 6.4 per cent from a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
