My Take | Hong Kong’s Omicron wave may disrupt China’s border reopening plan
- China cannot afford an Omicron outbreak after Beijing declared ‘stability’ as its foremost priority in 2022
- The mainland’s zero-Covid policy has so far proven to be an effective way to balance public health and economic development
The worsening fifth wave of Covid-19 infections in Hong Kong has dashed hopes that the city’s border with the mainland would reopen any time soon. The outbreak is also likely to prevent China from easing its border restrictions for foreign visitors in the near future.
Omicron – which is more contagious than previous coronavirus variants, although it appears to cause less severe disease – presents a big risk for mainland China, which is not prepared to handle a surge in Covid-19 cases, especially after Beijing declared “stability” as the country’s foremost priority this year.
While the number of infections in Hong Kong is comparable to those seen in Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand in recent months, the city’s more than 34,000 new daily Covid-19 cases recorded on Monday would astound anyone living on the mainland, which reported on Sunday just 87 cases among a population of 1.4 billion.
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In Hong Kong, the insufficient vaccination rates among the most vulnerable groups have placed extraordinary pressure on the city’s hospitals. Should a major Omicron outbreak hit mainland China, the situation would be no better given the absence of more effective mRNA vaccines in the country, and underdeveloped health care systems in small cities and towns.
For now, mainland China’s zero-tolerance approach to the pandemic, which includes mass testing and targeted lockdowns, is still working.
When the northern Chinese metropolis of Tianjin was hit by Omicron in early January, authorities implemented strict lockdown measures. By the end of that month, life in the port city of 13 million had largely returned to normal. The southern city of Shenzhen, which has reduced its daily entry quota for travellers from Hong Kong, is trying to control its ongoing mini-outbreaks using the same approach.
China’s dynamic zero-Covid policy has proven to be an effective way to balance public health and economic development, and there is no reason to discard this approach when it remains vastly popular with the Chinese public.
